The October forecast estimates Lake Mead will reach 1,009.85 feet in July 2028, nearly 13 feet higher than September’s estimate. Other months in the outlook show the reservoir about 17 feet higher than previously projected. The agency’s projections are based on a “most probable” estimate of Colorado River inflows and assume 6 million acre-feet of water will be released from Lake Powell.

The outlook also projects a low of 1,007.73 feet for Lake Mead in July 2027. The lake’s surface stood at 1,037.58 feet at noon Wednesday, and it is already at its lowest level since the reservoir filled in the 1930s. These figures describe the elevation of the water’s surface.

The improved estimates do not mean the region has a water surplus, and forecasts can change as inflows and weather conditions shift. The Reclamation report does not explain the change in its projections. El Niño-related weather patterns or other observations incorporated into the agency’s models may have contributed, according to the report’s discussion.

Lake Powell’s projections improved as well. Its March 2028 level is forecast at 3,521.54 feet, about 3 feet above September’s estimate; other months are projected 5 to 6 feet higher. Powell generally reaches its annual low in late winter or early spring before snowmelt flows into the Upper Colorado River Basin. Mead typically bottoms out in July, when water demand is highest in Nevada, Arizona and California.

About 40 million people depend on the Colorado River. A drought that began in 2000 has contributed to drier conditions that have reduced the basin’s water by about 20%, underscoring why a more favorable forecast is not the same as a lasting recovery. The Reclamation also publishes a separate projection based on a possible 7 million acre-foot release from Powell, a scenario that could occur following wet winters with high mountain snowpack.