A new seasonal forecast projects substantially above-normal rainfall across the Bay Area this winter, with San Francisco and San Jose expected to receive nearly twice their usual precipitation from December through March. The European seasonal model’s latest outlook, released this week, is wetter than its previous run a month ago. It now projects San Francisco’s January rainfall at about 5 inches above normal, up from a previous estimate of 4 inches. Santa Rosa’s January forecast rose from 6.3 inches above normal to 7 inches. Across the full four-month period, the model’s precipitation estimates range from 173% to 195% of its historical average for Bay Area locations. The comparison uses the model’s 1993–2016 baseline. The forecast is part of a broader signal for an unusually wet California winter during a historically strong El Niño. In the model’s 51 separate forecast runs, 50 show San Francisco receiving above-normal precipitation from December through March; 41 project at least 50% more than normal. UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said on X that he had never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter and was concerned. Southern California has the largest projected departures from normal: San Diego is forecast at 263% of the model’s average, Santa Barbara at 226% and Paso Robles at 211%. Northern California is still expected to receive higher overall rainfall totals because it is typically wetter. The model puts Eureka’s December-through-March average at 52 inches and Santa Rosa’s at 41 inches. The seasonal totals do not show whether rain will arrive steadily or in a few intense storms. The model also indicates that ocean temperatures off California will remain far above normal into January, potentially adding moisture to storms and raising the snow line. The outlook is less certain for the Sierra Nevada. At Lake Tahoe, seven of the 51 model runs predict below-normal precipitation, the highest chance of a drier-than-normal season among the 15 California locations analyzed. Seasonal precipitation projections do not distinguish rain from snow. Seasonal models estimate conditions over months rather than forecasting specific storms, and they carry significant uncertainty. Still, the latest set of projections overwhelmingly favors a wet winter—an outlook that makes storm preparation and attention to local forecasts important for Bay Area residents.