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Oregon’s projected transportation emissions cuts shrink from 60% to 10%
A new state forecast says Oregon is far off its 2050 transportation emissions target, citing federal policy reversals and inadequate state funding for transit and other climate measures. Officials say expanded EV rebates, charging access and stronger vehicle standards could help recover lost ground.
Oregon is no longer on course to cut greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 80% by 2050, according to a new state forecast. If current conditions continue, emissions from the sector are projected to fall only about 10% below 1990 levels by mid-century.
Transportation produces about 35% of Oregon’s overall greenhouse gas emissions. The Oregon Department of Transportation presented the updated forecast to the Oregon Climate Action Commission on Friday, Oct. 16, as part of its review of the state’s transportation emissions strategy.
A 2022 projection had put Oregon near a 60% reduction by 2050. That outlook assumed continued support for electric vehicle purchases, public charging infrastructure and strict vehicle emissions standards. ODOT climate program lead Tara Weidner said those gains have been undermined by federal funding cuts and weakened emissions rules, as well as Oregon’s failure to secure lasting state funding for measures such as public transit.
Weidner said the state had been making progress through 2024, with regulations, incentives and new charging options helping more residents choose electric vehicles. Oregon still offers rebates for buying or leasing an EV, but the state program regularly runs out of money, limiting how many people can use it.
State funding pressures also threaten transportation alternatives. ODOT faces budget gaps, and potential transit cuts could make it harder for residents to drive less, Weidner said. State officials say federal actions affecting climate programs and vehicle standards have added to the challenge.
State Rep. Mark Gamba, a member of the climate commission, questioned whether the new estimate may be too optimistic given current conditions. Commissioner Nora Apter called the findings a warning, saying the benchmarks themselves do not reflect the reductions needed to avoid the most severe climate impacts.
State agencies say Oregon can still make progress before 2050. They point to expanding EV rebates and public charging, and working with other states to defend vehicle and fuel standards. The state is also projected to miss its broader 2035 greenhouse gas reduction benchmark by two years, adding pressure as that milestone approaches.
Oregonians can send feedback on the transportation strategy to climate.office@odot.oregon.gov.