Oregon’s drought eased slightly in September, but most of the state remains dry and conditions could persist through the end of 2026, according to federal drought and seasonal outlooks released in October. The first U.S. Drought Monitor report for October downgraded the most severe drought classification in parts of the state: exceptional drought conditions covering 3.9% of Oregon shifted to the less severe extreme category. Overall, 57.6% of the state remained in some level of drought, while just 1.5% was classified as neither abnormally dry nor worse. Cooler-than-normal weather in September and rain in some areas helped ease conditions. But Oregon Water Resources Department hydrologist Cameron Greenwood said warm, dry weather so far in October makes further improvement unlikely without a substantial storm. The near-term forecast did not indicate one. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Seasonal Drought Outlook forecast conditions that could allow drought to continue through the rest of 2026. Greenwood said longer-range predictions remain uncertain amid a strong El Niño pattern in the Pacific. Past strong El Niño years — 1983, 1998 and 2016 — brought at least near-normal precipitation, but also unusually warm temperatures that can affect snowpack. The state entered this period after a historically poor winter snowpack. Oregon lowered water levels in many reservoirs more than usual, and the reservoirs need to refill to support irrigation in the 2027 growing season. “If we don’t see recharge into those reservoir systems,” Greenwood said, irrigators could face greater impacts next year. This past year, some water users with junior rights faced restrictions four to eight weeks earlier than normal, and cuts went deeper. Even some senior water-right holders who had never previously been regulated faced restrictions for the first time, he said. With water supplies uncertain, some farmers may decide not to plant next season rather than risk investing in crops that could fail without enough irrigation water.