The study, “ICE-ing the Economy,” estimates that Philadelphia experienced 193 million fewer visits to stores and workplaces. Across targeted metropolitan areas, foot traffic fell 2.9% and consumer spending declined 6.9%, amounting to 8.1 billion fewer visits and as much as $14 billion in forgone spending during the period studied.

Hernandez analyzed 5,388 mapped ICE arrests or documented enforcement events alongside traffic and spending data from 5.4 million retailers and workplaces. He found that economic activity dropped both because workers stayed away and because customers made fewer visits or spent less. The declines extended across neighborhoods and industries and persisted over time, the study found.

In North Philadelphia, food-truck operator Gerardo Flores said fear surrounding possible enforcement activity has hurt business near Fourth Street and Allegheny Avenue. “Families have been scared, and there has been a decline in the business,” Flores said. “We have felt that.”

The effects can reach beyond the people directly targeted by immigration enforcement, Hernandez said, placing costs on local workers, customers and business owners regardless of immigration status. Small independent businesses, which have less capacity to withstand prolonged drops in customers or staff, may be especially vulnerable.

The Department of Homeland Security disputed the study’s findings. A spokesperson said removing people the department describes as criminals makes communities safer for businesses and customers, and pointed to arrests in Pennsylvania involving people it said had convictions for serious offenses.

The study’s findings come amid a sharp expansion of interior immigration enforcement. It reported that the share of arrests in communities inside the United States rose from 28% in 2025 to 39% in July 2026, while the monthly pace more than doubled, from an average of 8,000 to 19,000. The Migration Policy Institute has separately estimated that the administration completed about 980,000 deportations during its first 18 months.

The term “ICE tax” is used by immigrant advocacy groups and Democratic elected officials to describe economic costs they associate with deportation efforts, including lost business and labor shortages. Critics argue that immigration laws should be enforced and contend that unauthorized immigration can burden public services or put downward pressure on wages.

For Philadelphia, the estimates add an economic dimension to debates over federal enforcement decisions whose effects can spill into neighborhood commercial corridors. Hernandez said the consequences go beyond those whom authorities intend to arrest, as fear can also deter people with no reason to believe they will be detained.