The poll, conducted by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University, surveyed 400 likely voters from Oct. 16 through Oct. 22. Harvie’s two-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, and Siena Research Institute director Don Levy described the contest as a toss-up. Election Day is a little more than a week away.

Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner, is seeking to unseat Fitzpatrick, the last Republican representing Philadelphia’s suburban counties. The district includes most of Bucks County and part of Montgomery County, and its many independent voters make it a closely watched battleground. The contest could give Democrats a path to regain a seat they have not held in 15 years.

The poll suggests both candidates have room to persuade voters. Fitzpatrick leads Harvie on favorability, 43% to 38%, and on voters’ assessment of character, 46% to 39%. But the candidates are tied at 44% among independents.

President Donald Trump’s standing may be a factor in the race. In the district, 35% of voters approve of his performance and 61% disapprove; 68% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living. Nearly half of respondents, 48%, said Fitzpatrick supports Trump too much, while 31% said his position is about right.

Fitzpatrick has sometimes broken with his party and the president, including votes supporting war powers resolutions related to the conflict in Iran. Levy said the congressman’s record of independence and personal appeal could help him, even as voters express dissatisfaction with Trump. Fitzpatrick’s polling advantage over Harvie on favorability suggests the incumbent retains a base of personal support.

The economy is a central concern: more than a quarter of district voters named it the most important issue in the congressional contest. Harvie holds modest leads on several issues tested in the poll, including the cost of living, immigration, foreign wars, artificial intelligence and data centers, and corruption. Forty-six percent said Harvie would act in the best interests of ordinary Pennsylvanians, compared with 44% for Fitzpatrick.

The governor’s race could also shape the congressional contest. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro leads Republican Stacy Garrity 61% to 34% in the district and has a 67% approval rating. Democrats are campaigning alongside Shapiro, hoping his popularity will boost Harvie and other candidates. Still, some voters may split their tickets: Yardley resident Hank Conicelli, for example, said he plans to vote for Shapiro for governor and Fitzpatrick for Congress.

The poll offers a snapshot rather than a prediction. With the candidates essentially tied among independents and Harvie’s narrow lead within the margin of error, turnout and voters’ final decisions could determine whether Fitzpatrick holds the seat or Democrats flip it.