Cognetti, Scranton’s mayor, leads U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan 51% to 46% among likely voters in the 8th Congressional District, which includes Scranton and stretches across parts of northeastern Pennsylvania. Brooks, a union leader and retired firefighter, leads U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie 49% to 44% in the 7th District, covering the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos.

The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena University surveyed about 400 likely voters in each district from Oct. 16 through Oct. 22. Between 3% and 6% of respondents were undecided. The poll did not establish either Democrat as a clear favorite, but the five-point advantages are the widest Democratic leads among four competitive Pennsylvania House races included in the survey.

In the other contests, Democrat Bob Harvie leads Republican U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick 48% to 46% in the Bucks County-based 1st District, while Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry and Democrat Janelle Stelson are tied in the 10th District, centered on Harrisburg.

The four races have drawn more than $116 million in combined television advertising, along with visits from national party leaders. The 7th and 8th districts have been especially heavily contested: Mackenzie and Bresnahan narrowly defeated Democratic incumbents in 2024, winning a combined 10,300 more votes out of nearly 790,000 cast.

This year, both Republicans have largely backed President Donald Trump’s agenda. The poll found that Trump’s job performance is unpopular in both districts. In the 7th, 59% disapproved of his performance; in the 8th, 57% disapproved. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat seeking reelection, also leads his Republican opponent in both districts, a showing that could help Democratic candidates down the ballot.

In the 7th District, Brooks’ campaign has emphasized his working-class background and cost-of-living concerns. He raised $2.6 million over the summer, more than three times Mackenzie’s fundraising during that period, according to the campaign figures cited in the poll report. Mackenzie’s campaign has attacked Brooks over his business history, including allegations about workers’ compensation insurance. Brooks denies wrongdoing, and his lawyer sent the Republican campaign a cease-and-desist letter; Mackenzie’s campaign rejected it.

Voters in the district said Brooks would handle the cost of living, foreign conflicts, data centers and corruption better than Mackenzie. They were divided over which candidate had better character. Nearly six in 10 respondents disapproved of Trump’s job performance, and 39% said Mackenzie supported the president too much, compared with 35% who said his support was about right.

In the 8th District, Cognetti has made corruption and Bresnahan’s stock trading a central campaign issue. Bresnahan has said he supports a congressional ban on stock trading and does not trade his own stocks. Still, 51% of district voters said they trusted Cognetti more to handle corruption, compared with 40% for Bresnahan, the largest such gap among the four races.

Cognetti also led on cost of living, foreign conflicts and data centers, while Bresnahan had an advantage on immigration. Voters were more likely to say Cognetti had good character and would act in the interests of ordinary Pennsylvanians.

The economy remains a central concern for voters. Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, said Democrats’ advantage on cost-of-living issues suggests voters are linking the president’s economic record to congressional Republicans. For families facing high expenses, he said, optimistic claims about the economy may not match their experience.