The preliminary count was shared with the School Board on Monday. Wisconsin public schools report enrollment each September to help determine state aid, then submit another count in January to finalize the numbers. The measure is full-time equivalent, or FTE, rather than a simple headcount: it reflects the students districts are financially responsible for under state law.

This fall’s drop is more than three times the district’s 93-student decline last school year. Madison officials had initially projected enrollment would grow by about 200 students last year, but the final count fell instead.

“We need to dig down deeper into what caused this,” assistant superintendent of financial services Bob Soldner told board members. “We don’t have a ton of answers right now, but we do know what the numbers are.”

The district budgeted for enrollment to remain stable this school year. Because state funding partly depends on a three-year average of FTE enrollment, consecutive declines could lower the average used in future funding calculations. Soldner said that dip is a concern, while noting the decline is spread across a district with 52 school buildings.

The numbers arrive as Madison prepares to finalize school attendance-area maps in February. Draft options include a new elementary school on the east side and a new middle school on the west side, alongside changes to school assignments and educational programs.

A consultant’s analysis projects the district will lose more than 700 resident students over the next five years, citing declining birth rates, fewer expected students in new housing developments and other factors. District leaders have said that changes to programs could help attract and retain students. They also expect long-term population growth in the Madison area to eventually increase enrollment.

In 2024, voters approved a $507 million referendum to renovate or build facilities for 10 schools, with district officials pointing to anticipated population growth. The current decline adds to the challenge of aligning school capacity and spending with uncertain enrollment trends.

The district’s $609 million operating budget for this school year remains balanced, Soldner said. Under the plan, the property tax bill for a typical Madison home valued at about $500,000 is expected to rise roughly 6.8%, or $335—about half the increase from the previous year.

Soldner said he hopes the governor and Legislature elected Nov. 3 will increase state support for public schools, but said that remains uncertain. The School Board is scheduled to finalize the 2026-27 budget at its meeting next Monday, after a public comment period.