The estimate comes amid a rapid expansion of large, energy-intensive data centers across the state, including projects tied to Microsoft and OpenAI. Metro Atlanta’s data center construction activity has surpassed Northern Virginia’s this year, according to industry data cited in the analysis.

The tax breaks are intended to attract investment. But Good Jobs First says they carry a substantial public cost, particularly for school systems that rely on local tax revenue to pay for classrooms, staff and other services. The analysis focuses on sales tax exemptions for equipment used in data centers; the exact effect on individual districts can vary with local tax arrangements and projects.

One major project under construction in Union City is being developed by EdgeConneX for Microsoft. The 136-acre site has a reported price tag of nearly $2 billion. OpenAI’s Project Camellia is planned for Effingham County, where residents and local officials have raised questions about the project’s effects and the benefits the community will receive.

The debate is unfolding as some Georgia districts contend with declining enrollment and difficult budget choices. The watchdog group argues that exemptions can reduce funds available to schools even as local governments weigh the promise of investment and new economic activity.

Technology companies and local development officials point to potential benefits, including construction jobs, community investment and education partnerships. But those benefits are not the same as dependable school funding, and the amount a district gains or loses can depend on the terms of each project and how local taxes are collected.

Georgia’s boom has put pressure on communities to weigh promised economic gains against the public cost of incentives. The new estimate raises questions for school districts and residents about whether the tax breaks are delivering enough local benefit to justify the revenue they may forgo.