Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek holds a narrow lead over Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan in a new poll of likely Oregon voters, but the two candidates remain effectively tied, according to the survey’s margin of error. The poll found 46% of likely voters would choose Kotek if the election were held today, compared with 44% for Drazan. Seven percent said they were undecided, and 3% favored Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith. The survey’s margin of error among likely voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. DHM Research conducted the poll by phone and text from Sept. 24 to Oct. 1, interviewing 600 registered voters. The likely-voter results are based on 549 respondents. The firm said it used demographic quotas and modeled expected November turnout using factors including age, gender, party affiliation, region and voting history. The result follows three recent polls that showed Drazan with leads that became progressively smaller. Those surveys were commissioned by Drazan’s campaign, a business group and Oregon Public Broadcasting. John Horvick, DHM Research’s senior vice president, said the pattern resembles the 2022 governor’s race, when early polling favored Drazan but later surveys shifted toward Kotek. “It’s hard for me to ignore that,” Horvick said, citing the polling trend and Oregon’s history of electing Democratic governors. Oregon has not elected a Republican governor in four decades. Kotek won the 2022 contest with 47% of the vote, compared with 43.5% for Drazan, in a three-way race that also included unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson. A Drazan victory this year would end the state’s long run of Democratic governors. Both candidates drew more negative than positive impressions in the new survey. Among all respondents, 39% said they had a somewhat or very positive view of Drazan and 47% a negative view. Kotek’s figures were 36% positive and 60% negative. Drazan’s campaign pointed to Kotek’s favorability numbers as evidence that voters want a change in leadership. Campaign strategist Trey Rosser said in a statement that voters were increasingly hearing Drazan’s plans for Oregon. Kotek’s campaign focused instead on Drazan’s relationship to President Donald Trump. Spokesperson Federico Araujo said voters face a choice between Kotek, who opposes Trump’s agenda, and Drazan, whom he described as willing to support it. Drazan’s campaign has argued that Kotek has not done enough to address the state’s problems. The poll showed a pronounced geographic split: in the Portland area, 56% of likely voters favored Kotek and 33% Drazan. Drazan performed better among men and voters with little or no college education, while Kotek had stronger support among women and college graduates. Voters who took part in the survey described different motivations. Edward Newbegin, a 69-year-old Portland resident who supports Drazan, said he mainly wants a change from Democratic control of state government. Cindy Adkisson, a 64-year-old retired teacher in Eugene who plans to vote for Kotek, said she was satisfied with the governor’s performance and did not trust Drazan to stand up to Trump. Among 41 respondents who said they were undecided, 30% identified the economy as Oregon’s most important problem and 27% cited homelessness. County officials are scheduled to begin mailing ballots next week ahead of the Nov. 3 election.