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Oregon’s shrinking cross-border workforce leaves a $33 million tax gap

Fewer people are commuting to Oregon jobs from Washington and other states as the state’s hiring remains weak. Oregon still collected an estimated $268 million in income taxes from Clark County commuters in 2024, but that was about $33 million less than it might have received if their numbers had held steady.

Oregon’s shrinking cross-border workforce leaves a $33 million tax gap
Oregon’s out-of-state workforce has contracted since the pandemic, with the steepest decline among commuters from Washington’s Clark County — a shift that reflects the state’s sluggish job market and has narrowed a source of income-tax revenue. The number of out-of-state workers in Oregon fell about 3% through 2023, according to an analysis by the Oregon Employment Department. In the Portland area, fewer than 70,000 Clark County residents filed Oregon income taxes in 2024, the first time that figure had dropped below that level since 2016. The count was down 11% from 2019. Oregon has about 120,000 workers who live in other states, and roughly three-quarters come from Washington. The state ranks fourth nationally in earnings paid to workers who live elsewhere, a position that has previously reflected strong demand for Oregon jobs. But Oregon has added no jobs since 2023, with weak hiring in construction, manufacturing and other sectors contributing to the slowdown. Fewer jobs mean fewer opportunities for Oregon residents as well as for people who might commute from across the state line. Cross-border workers pay Oregon income taxes on earnings from their Oregon jobs, while living outside the state. Oregon Legislative Revenue Office analyst Chris Allanach estimated that Clark County commuters generated $268 million in state income-tax revenue in 2024 — about 7% more than in 2019. Rising incomes have more than offset the decline in commuter numbers when comparing total tax collections over that period. Still, the state would have collected an estimated $33 million more in 2024 if the number of Clark County workers had remained at its 2019 level, according to the analysis. The figures show how a weakening labor market can affect Oregon’s tax base beyond the people who live in the state. The Portland region’s proximity to Clark County has long linked the two sides of the Columbia River through jobs and commuting; fewer workers making that trip now means less potential revenue for Oregon.

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