Politics
North Carolina Senate race becomes a growing GOP concern as Cooper holds double-digit lead
Republicans are increasingly questioning whether nominee Michael Whatley can close a persistent polling gap with Democrat Roy Cooper before November. Outside groups are committing tens of millions of dollars, while both parties confront North Carolina’s status as a competitive but Republican-leaning battleground.
Republicans are growing uneasy about their chances in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, where nominee Michael Whatley has struggled to close the gap with Democrat Roy Cooper despite the party’s expectation that late spending would revive the contest.
An Elon University poll released Thursday found Cooper, a former governor, leading Whatley by 11 percentage points among likely voters. The race has drawn unusual concern at Republican meetings in Dallas this week, where party leaders and strategists discussed whether North Carolina remains a viable target as they prioritize other closely contested Senate seats.
“Probably one of the hardest” states on the map is how Sen. Rick Scott of Florida described North Carolina, pointing to Cooper’s advantage as an established statewide officeholder in what would otherwise be an open-seat contest.
A Republican pollster who attended the convention said North Carolina and Georgia were viewed by many party officials as increasingly difficult to justify for major additional spending, particularly as Michigan and New Hampshire appear more attainable Republican targets. The Senate Leadership Fund has pledged an initial $71 million in North Carolina through Election Day, including $17 million for summer advertising. A Trump-aligned political action committee separately spent about $5 million in the state earlier this week.
The race could receive another boost from former President Donald Trump, who is scheduled to campaign with Whatley in Gastonia next week. A person close to the Whatley campaign said the visit could help activate Republican voters who typically pay closer attention late in the election cycle.
Whatley said he expected his campaign to have the resources needed to communicate with voters, but he offered no details about further assistance from Trump-aligned groups. Some Republican strategists remain skeptical that money alone can reverse the race’s direction.
“There is still time, but even with at least $100 million, he would need a campaign team capable of turning that money into actual points,” one North Carolina Republican operative said.
Republicans also face competing demands in other expensive states, including Texas, where party officials may need to spend more than expected to protect traditionally safe seats. The National Republican Senatorial Committee said it was not concerned about Whatley’s current position, noting that summer polling in North Carolina has previously overstated Democratic strength.
The committee cited the 2020 Senate race, when Republican Thom Tillis trailed Democrat Cal Cunningham at a similar point before winning by about two percentage points. Cunningham’s campaign was later damaged by a scandal, however, making that contest a limited comparison for Democrats and Republicans alike.
North Carolina has not elected a Democrat to statewide federal office or backed a Democratic presidential nominee since 2008. Republicans have won the state’s presidential vote in each of the past four elections, but statewide races have remained competitive, and the state’s high media costs make it especially vulnerable to heavy outside spending.
Democrats are not treating Cooper’s lead as secure. His campaign manager, Jeff Allen, said the race would likely become a close contest as Republican groups spend to defend the seat. He argued that Whatley’s ties to national Republican leaders would bring substantial financial support, while Cooper would focus on the cost of living and other issues important to North Carolina voters.
Republican strategists say voter motivation may be as important as advertising. Party officials are trying to turn out lower-propensity voters who support Trump but may not otherwise participate in a midterm election. At the same time, Trump’s weaker standing among unaffiliated voters poses a problem for Whatley, who would need to win a large share of those voters because little crossover voting is expected between the two major parties.
Paul Shumaker, a longtime North Carolina Republican strategist, said Whatley faces both low enthusiasm among Republican voters and a president who is unpopular with independents. Overcoming both challenges, he said, is essential to winning a state where the Senate contest could help determine control of the chamber.