Colom, a district attorney, argues national Democrats have too often written off Mississippi. At a rally in his hometown on Oct. 22, former Vice President Kamala Harris joined him before about 1,000 people. Harris urged attendees to channel their frustration with the administration into votes.

Mississippi has the nation’s largest proportional Black population, with Black voters making up close to 40% of the electorate. Democrats see the possibility of higher Black turnout, combined with broader dissatisfaction with the president and lower Republican participation, as a potential opening. But the state remains heavily racially polarized, and President Trump carried it by 23 percentage points in 2024.

The costs of everyday life have also become part of the campaign backdrop. Mississippi is among the poorest states and has a large rural and agricultural economy, leaving many residents especially exposed to rising prices, including fuel costs. Rally attendees described frustration with the political establishment and a desire for change.

Hyde-Smith received Trump’s support at a rally in Corinth on Oct. 26. She called the election a choice between “socialism versus capitalism” and urged Republicans to turn out. Trump, in turn, warned supporters not to assume the senator would win without their votes.

The two campaigns have intensified advertising in the final stretch. Democrats spent about $5 million on Mississippi advertising during the month, compared with roughly $3.2 million by Republicans, according to AdImpact data. Hyde-Smith’s campaign spent more than $1.3 million on an ad portraying Colom as an extreme candidate and alleging violent crime doubled while he was district attorney. The ad’s claims were campaign rhetoric; no supporting evidence was provided in the reported figures.

Hyde-Smith’s campaign has also pointed to her working relationship with Trump and said voters should hear from him about what it describes as the consequences of electing Democrats. Colom said the incumbent’s record has failed voters and argued the state has been overlooked by national Democrats.

The contest has significance beyond control of the Senate. It is unfolding as Republican-led Southern states pursue changes to congressional districts following a Supreme Court ruling that weakened part of the Voting Rights Act. Mississippi Republicans have also signaled interest in redrawing state legislative and judicial districts after the midterms. Colom has warned such changes could affect local elections, arguing that mapmaking should not shift political power away from voters.

The path to an upset remains steep. Hyde-Smith won the seat by about seven points in a 2018 special election, even during a strong national year for Democrats. The last Black candidate to win statewide office in Mississippi did so during Reconstruction. The election is set for Nov. 3, with turnout likely to determine whether Democrats’ late investment can overcome the state’s partisan and racial voting patterns.