The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey found a 10-point Democratic advantage among all registered voters. Both margins suggest Democrats are well positioned to compete for control of the U.S. House, but the poll’s findings on turnout, voter enthusiasm and congressional district boundaries complicate the outlook.

The survey was conducted Oct. 19-20 among 1,289 registered voters. Marist’s likely-voter results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points; results for registered voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating was 40% among likely voters, with 59% disapproving. Among registered voters, 38% approved and 61% disapproved. In both groups, 53% said they strongly disapproved of his performance.

Still, dissatisfaction with the president does not guarantee a vote for Democrats. Matthew Schroder, an independent from Charlotte, North Carolina, who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024, said he is unhappy with Trump’s job performance but opposed what he sees as a stronger embrace of democratic socialism among Democrats. He said he plans to support Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the state’s Senate race.

The survey found a 17-point gap between Democratic likely voters who said they would vote for their party’s candidate and those who thought that candidate would win. Among Republicans, the gap was 10 points. Independents were more likely to think the Democratic candidate would win.

Voters’ appetite for change could benefit Democrats: 55% of likely voters said it was more important to choose candidates with new ideas and a promise of change than to favor other considerations. Nearly twice as many said their vote would be against Trump as said it would be for him: 44% versus 21%.

But Democratic enthusiasm is uneven. Seventy-one percent of Democratic likely voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans. The figures were lower among some groups that tend to be important to Democrats: 42% of voters under 45, 53% of nonwhite voters and 56% of white women with college degrees said they were very enthusiastic. Among independents, the figure was 48%.

Meanwhile, Republicans have become more attentive to the election. The share of registered Republicans following the campaign very closely rose from 34% in the prior month’s survey to 45%, nearly matching Democrats at 46%.

The poll’s congressional-ballot findings come as recent redistricting has altered the political map. Redistricting after the 2020 Census, followed by mid-decade map changes in some states, has given Republicans a structural advantage in congressional districts, the survey analysis said. That could make it harder for Democrats to convert a national lead into House seats.

The cost of living remains a concern across party lines. One-third of respondents said they had experienced financial hardship in the past year, and 38% said their finances had worsened. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans Democratic, said food and gas prices were straining his budget, adding that they were too expensive “no matter who you voted for.”

Other findings point to areas of potential debate for local communities: 66% of respondents opposed building a data center in their community, while 61% said immigrants who meet certain requirements should have a legal way to remain in the country. Three-quarters of likely voters said they were confident state and local governments would run a fair and accurate election, though confidence was lower among Republicans than Democrats.