Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner has been campaigning across Arkansas on a message that she says puts residents’ needs ahead of party labels. At a stop in Hope on Friday, Oct. 23, she criticized what she called an unproductive Congress and argued that both parties have failed to listen to people in the state.

“We’re the sleeper race,” Shoffner said, describing her campaign’s prospects.

Arkansas is among the country’s most conservative states. Nearly two-thirds of its voters backed President Donald Trump in 2024, and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton won the state in 2020. The Cook Political Report rates the Senate race “Solid Republican” and the state’s 2nd Congressional District “Likely Republican.”

Still, Shoffner and Chris Jones, the Democratic nominee challenging Rep. French Hill in the 2nd District, say economic strain and dissatisfaction with the administration could persuade some voters to reconsider their choices. Republicans have spent millions of dollars on the Senate contest and the House district, alongside efforts to turn out voters.

Shoffner, a multigenerational farmer, said rising costs and trade policies contributed to her family closing its farming operation in 2025. The experience helped prompt her Senate campaign and shaped its focus on agriculture and the economic pressures facing rural communities.

At a family farm near Arkadelphia, supporter Marcus Hatley said voters’ everyday concerns could outweigh party affiliation. Local justice of the peace candidate Vanilla Hannah, who was also there to support Shoffner, said she believes people are looking for candidates prepared to work across differences to address basic needs.

Jones is also centering his campaign on the cost of living, arguing that voters are frustrated by high prices for essentials such as gas and groceries. He has backing from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which includes him among its “Red to Blue” targets, and has received visits and endorsements from prominent Democrats.

A former gubernatorial candidate, Jones said some voters who supported Trump expected lower prices, an end to foreign wars and action against corruption. Their disappointment, he said, could make them more open to another choice. Hill is a longtime incumbent, and the district became more Republican after its boundaries were changed following the 2020 Census.

Jones also pointed to increased Black voter participation in parts of the South during primaries and early voting. He said concern over voting rights and recent efforts in several states to redraw congressional maps have helped motivate voters. Arkansas did not redraw its congressional map following the Supreme Court decision described by Jones, though the state’s post-2020 map divided Little Rock in a way that made Hill’s district more Republican.

The campaigns are testing whether economic frustration and concerns about representation can broaden Democratic support in a state where Republicans hold every congressional seat. The ratings from election analysts underscore the challenge: the candidates’ arguments may be resonating with some voters, but Arkansas remains a long-shot target for Democrats.