FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — A wetter-than-usual monsoon has helped stabilize water supplies across parts of Arizona, giving forecasters and water managers a reason for cautious optimism as winter approaches. Rainfall was above average in many parts of the state this year, following two years of below-average monsoon rain and mountain snowpack. Recent storms left soils saturated around Flagstaff, where the added moisture could help more snowmelt flow into reservoirs instead of soaking into dry ground. Salt River Project hydrologist Stephen Flora said the utility’s reservoirs have stopped declining and are level or edging upward. They are still near 50% full, he said. Summer typically brings greater water demand and less inflow to reservoirs, Flora said. Recent rain has reduced the amount of water being drawn from storage while also adding some inflow. Arizona’s supply depends on several sources, including the Colorado River and mountain snowpack. Snow accumulated over winter is especially important because its gradual melt can feed water systems in spring, according to First Alert Meteorologist Pete Mangione. Forecasters are watching a strong El Niño pattern that could favor more snow in Arizona’s high country. But a powerful El Niño is not a promise of exceptional snowfall, Mangione cautioned; it does not necessarily mean the state will have a record snow year. Any added winter precipitation could ease near-term drought pressure in Arizona and neighboring states, but it would not erase the state’s decades-long drought in a single season. Flagstaff is about a month from its usual first measurable snowfall date. The San Francisco Peaks had already received a light dusting in late September.