The expected increase, reported by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, will not affect all households equally. Spending on heating oil is projected to rise 21% nationwide, while homes heated with electricity could see utility bills increase about 3%. Households that rely on natural gas or propane may pay less than they did last winter.

The regional outlook also depends on weather: temperatures are expected to be milder than last year, which could reduce how much energy people use. But rising electricity demand and the cost of expanding and upgrading the power grid may put added pressure on bills, said Sanya Carley, an energy policy and city planning professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

The 13-state PJM Interconnection region, which includes Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, is experiencing rapid growth in electricity demand. Grid investments needed to serve that demand can add costs for consumers, Carley said. Electricity is the second-most common heating fuel in the Northeast, after natural gas.

Households that heat with oil are a small share of homes nationally, but the Northeast is especially exposed: 82% of U.S. households that use oil as their main heating fuel are in the region, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The projected bills come amid a wider affordability crunch. About 400,000 Pennsylvania households experienced utility shutoffs in 2025, a nearly 14% increase from the previous year, according to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.

“People are having trouble balancing how to pay their electric bill when they also have to pay for medical care and food,” said Charlotte Edelstein, a lawyer with Community Legal Services of Philadelphia.

Falling behind on utility bills can bring serious health and safety risks, advocates and researchers warn. Seventeen percent of low-income households have reported going without food or health care to pay utility bills. Families unable to afford adequate heat may resort to unsafe options such as running space heaters, burning trash indoors or using ovens to warm their homes, Carley said. Those most vulnerable to disconnection—including young children, older adults and people with disabilities—are also at greater risk from inadequate heating.

Edelstein urged struggling households to look into assistance programs, including the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program and PECO’s Customer Assistance Program. Pennsylvania’s winter shutoff moratorium begins Dec. 1 and protects qualifying households with incomes at or below 250% of the federal poverty level from utility disconnections.

Carley said longer-term affordability will require policymakers to address the cost of electricity and coordinate changes across the power sector. “We need to address it at the macro scale, thinking about our electricity grids and how we bring down the price of electricity going forward,” she said.