After five days of early voting, about 47,000 Davidson County residents had cast ballots — nearly seven times the number at that stage in 2022. The comparison has an important caveat: only one polling location was open during the first five days of early voting in 2022. Shelby County, which includes Memphis, was up 81 percent from the same period that year.

The turnout pattern could matter in the 9th and 5th Congressional Districts, where Pearson and Molder are running, respectively. Both campaigns are counting on strong participation in Shelby County, while early voting has also climbed in suburban counties around Nashville and elsewhere in the state.

State Rep. Pearson said his campaign has visited each county in the district more than once, pursuing what he described as a 15-county strategy. “Maps don’t vote, people do,” he said, pointing to participation compared with the previous midterm election.

The 9th District, previously Tennessee’s only Democratic-held congressional seat, was redrawn by the Republican supermajority during a special legislative session in May. Pearson and Molder have argued that the changes weaken Memphis’ majority-Black district, which had been protected under the Voting Rights Act.

The early-vote increases extend beyond Nashville and Memphis. Rutherford, Wilson, Cheatham and Williamson counties each recorded increases of more than 55 percent over the comparable 2022 period. Early voting was up 65 percent in Clarksville and 84 percent in Chattanooga, with more Democrats than Republicans voting so far in the latter, according to the figures reported by the campaigns. Knox County was up about 50 percent.

Those counties are closely watched because suburban voters can be pivotal in closely contested races. Campaigns have pointed to higher consumer prices and dissatisfaction with the Republican president as possible factors shaping the political environment, but the early totals do not establish how voters will cast their ballots.

Rural counties, many of which have backed Donald Trump in recent presidential elections, are seeing smaller increases where turnout is up at all. Overall, Tennessee remains behind the pace set during the 2018 midterms, when open races for governor and U.S. Senate drew voters statewide.

The current figures cover only the opening days of early voting, which continues ahead of Election Day on Nov. 3. Turnout comparisons also vary with how many voting sites were available in each county in 2022, making it too soon to treat the numbers as a reliable indicator of who will win.