Politics
Blackburn leads Tennessee governor poll, while independents favor Green
A Spry Strategies survey of likely voters put Republican Marsha Blackburn at 44%, 12 percentage points ahead of Democrat Jerri Green. Green led Blackburn among independent respondents, though the poll’s sample leaned Republican and conservative.
Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green by 12 percentage points in a new poll of likely Tennessee voters, while Green has an edge over Blackburn among independents surveyed.
The survey, released Oct. 20, found 44% support for Blackburn and 32% for Green in the 2026 governor’s race. Independent candidate David Hatley received 12%, and independent Lauren Pinkston received 1%. The remaining respondents were largely undecided.
Spry Strategies surveyed 635 likely voters by text-to-web from Oct. 10 to 16. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.89 percentage points. Among respondents identifying as independents, 43% supported Green, compared with 20% for Hatley and 16% for Blackburn.
The survey’s sample identified as 53% Republican, 23% Democratic and 19% independent; nearly 57% said they lived in rural areas or small towns, and 83% described themselves as moderate to very conservative. Those figures offer context for interpreting a statewide result in a state that has leaned Republican in recent elections.
Spry Strategies said no gubernatorial campaign had reported spending with the firm during this election cycle. The firm’s clients include Republican leaders and groups in the Tennessee Legislature, as well as U.S. Rep. Tim Burchett.
Among 65 respondents who were undecided, 30% chose “someone else” when asked to select among options. Of the named candidates, Blackburn received the most support from that group, at 25%, followed by Hatley at 21% and Green at 19%.
Blackburn had stronger support among undecided Republicans: 38% chose her when asked to pick a candidate, while 26% selected “someone else” and 24% chose Hatley. Among undecided Democrats, 56% chose Green. Undecided independents most often selected “someone else”; among named candidates, Green led with 21%, followed by Blackburn at 20% and Hatley at 19%.
The poll also found that 48% of respondents viewed Blackburn favorably and 37% viewed Green favorably. Nearly 39% had no opinion of Green or had not heard of her. Among independents, 75% viewed Blackburn unfavorably, compared with 20% who viewed Green unfavorably. Hatley had a 34% favorability rating among independents, while 38% had no opinion of him or had not heard of him.
Blackburn’s job approval as a U.S. senator stood at 49%, with 46% disapproving and the rest expressing no opinion. Among independents, 71% disapproved of her Senate performance. Sen. Bill Hagerty, who is also up for reelection in 2026, had 52% approval and 35% disapproval.