Republican candidates in several of Wisconsin’s most competitive Assembly districts are highlighting breaks with their party’s leadership as they try to protect the GOP’s 54-45 majority in the 99-seat chamber in the Nov. 3 election. The strategy comes as polling suggests a more favorable environment for Democrats than in 2024. A September Marquette Law School poll found President Donald Trump’s approval at 37%, with 63% disapproving. In a separate legislative preference question, 46% of Wisconsin voters said they would vote for Democrats and 42% for Republicans. The poll did not provide district-level results. Democrats must hold their current seats and win at least five more to take control. Barry Burden, director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Elections Research Center, said Democrats are likely to make gains, but the size of those gains will determine whether they win a majority. Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos has acknowledged that Trump could hurt GOP candidates. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Vos called the president a “drag” on the party and said Republicans recruited center-right candidates for competitive districts. Vos and Rep. August Tyler, who leads the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, did not respond to interview requests from the Wisconsin Examiner. Candidates are also drawing attention to moments when they opposed their own leadership. Republican lawmakers from swing districts have pointed to legislation expanding Medicaid coverage for postpartum mothers and breast cancer screenings. Both measures were delayed by Vos before clearing near the end of the legislative session. At a late-night news conference, the lawmakers said they had persuaded caucus leaders to allow the bills to pass and faulted Democrats for their near failure. Rep. Patrick Snyder, a Republican from Weston, is using a photo from that news conference in a campaign mailer. It presents him as willing to challenge leaders of either party and cites his support for extended postpartum coverage. Snyder faces John Kroll, a Marathon County Board supervisor. Snyder won reelection in 2024 with 53.2% of the vote. Rep. Bob Donovan, a Republican from Greenfield, has likewise emphasized that he will confront party leadership to deliver for his district. He is challenged by Ben Brist, an Army veteran. Donovan narrowly won in 2024, with 51.6% of the vote. Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, a Racine Democrat, said voters will judge Republican incumbents by their broader records, not just their claims of independence. She argued that Snyder has largely voted with his party and criticized Republicans for tax breaks for data centers and inadequate school funding. Neubauer also said Trump’s unpopularity creates an opening for Democrats, while acknowledging that defeating longtime incumbents is difficult. Former Republican Assembly member Joe Handrick offered a different assessment at a recent WisPolitics event. He said Democrats may need gubernatorial candidate David Crowley to defeat Republican Tom Tiffany by more than four or five percentage points to have a strong chance of winning the Assembly. GOP incumbents, Handrick said, can outperform candidates at the top of the ballot because constituents seek their help with local problems. The campaign committees’ fundraising totals show a sharp imbalance. The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee has raised $10.6 million this year, with most of the money coming from billionaires Diane Hendricks and Elizabeth Uihlein, who have also backed other Wisconsin Republicans. The Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee has reported raising more than $3.3 million. Burden noted that individual Democratic candidates have nevertheless outraised some GOP opponents, including Brandy Tollefson in the Green Bay-area 88th District, who reported more than $80,000 compared with incumbent Benjamin Franklin’s more than $27,000. Other closely watched contests include the open 21st District seat, where Oak Creek Mayor Daniel Bukiewicz faces Republican student Dylan Pfaffenbach; the 26th District, where Democratic Rep. Joe Sheehan won by three percentage points in 2024; and the 51st District, where Republican Rep. Todd Novak faces Democrat Ben Gruber. The open 53rd District and the 94th District, where Democrat Steve Doyle won reelection by 223 votes in 2024, are also among the races drawing attention. Neubauer said Democrats are relying on local candidates, direct voter conversations and paid advertising to compete. She said the party expects spending to rise in the closest districts as the election approaches. Burden cautioned that major donations may help Republicans stay competitive, but money alone does not ensure victory.