The survey of 1,471 likely midterm voters found Donalds ahead of Democrat David Jolly, 49% to 47%, with 4% undecided. Moody led Democrat Angie Nixon, 49% to 45%, while 5% were undecided. The figures include voters who initially were undecided but said they leaned toward a candidate after being asked follow-up questions.

The margins have narrowed since the university’s July poll, when Donalds led by 5 points and Moody by 8. The latest results indicate close contests, but the poll provides no certainty about how turnout will shape the outcome.

“Given the margin of error, a win by either candidate would be unsurprising,” said Sean Freeder, the research lab’s faculty director and a UNF political science professor. He compared the governor’s race to Florida’s 2018 contest between Andrew Gillum and Ron DeSantis, which DeSantis won by less than a percentage point.

Jolly led Donalds by 16 points among independent voters. The poll also found that 11% of registered Republicans supported Jolly, while 5% of Democrats backed Donalds. Among Black voters, Donalds had 10% support, according to the survey.

Voters were nearly evenly split on which candidate they trusted more to address affordability and the cost of living: 43% named Jolly and 42% Donalds. Jolly had an edge on data centers, 41% to 37%, while Donalds led on property insurance, 43% to 38%. Support was more intense among Donalds voters: 77% described their support as strong, compared with 67% of Jolly voters.

In the Senate race, independents favored Nixon by 15 points. The poll also asked about campaign messages: 30% of respondents said Democratic claims tied Moody to a grand jury report on the Hope Florida program made them less likely to vote for her. Twenty-five percent said Republican messaging about Nixon’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America made them less likely to support her.

Freeder said turnout and voter enthusiasm could be decisive. Stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout could make Jolly more competitive and improve Nixon’s chances, while higher Republican enthusiasm could widen the leads for Donalds and Moody.

The survey found that 61% of respondents favored environmental protection even if it curbed economic growth, compared with 26% who prioritized growth and development. Support for environmental protection was 78% among Democrats, 62% among independents and 48% among Republicans. The poll also found that recent arrivals to Florida were more inclined toward growth and development, while longer-term residents more often favored environmental protection.

Voters also considered Amendment 3, a proposed increase to the homestead property-tax exemption and a lower cap on assessment increases for non-homestead properties. The proposal would not apply to taxes directed to schools. Fifty percent said they would vote yes, 30% no and 14% were undecided. Because the amendment requires at least 60% approval, it was below the threshold in the survey.

Freeder said undecided voters could still affect the amendment’s prospects, though most would need to support it for the measure to reach the required supermajority. The poll did not establish how those voters will decide.