Politics
Quantus poll puts Indiana’s 5th District race between Spartz and Ford within error margin
A survey of likely voters finds Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz leading Democratic state Sen. JD Ford by just over 3 percentage points, a gap smaller than the poll’s margin of error. The result stands out in a district Donald Trump carried by 19 points in 2024.
U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz leads Democratic challenger JD Ford by just over 3 percentage points in Indiana’s 5th Congressional District, according to a new poll whose margin of error is wider than the gap between the candidates.
Quantus Insights surveyed 634 likely voters by text on Oct. 21 and 22. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, and about 10% of respondents were undecided. After pollsters asked undecided voters which way they leaned, the difference between Spartz and Ford narrowed to just under 3 points.
The poll is notable in a district that President Donald Trump won by 19 percentage points in 2024. The 5th District includes Hamilton County and parts of several other counties and has not elected a Democrat since the 1990s.
The survey found little crossover between the parties’ supporters. Respondents the pollster identified as Republicans favored Spartz 85% to 5%, while Democratic respondents favored Ford 91% to 2%. Among independents, 39% backed Ford, 32% Spartz and 24% were undecided.
When undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward, Republicans who had not initially chosen a candidate moved to Spartz, while most undecided Democrats remained uncommitted. The pollster excluded 33 people who said they would not vote Nov. 3 from its analysis.
Earlier polls commissioned by Ford’s campaign and the Democratic House Majority PAC also showed Spartz ahead by only one or two percentage points. Those surveys were conducted by partisan groups. Several national race-rating organizations have recently moved the seat from the safest Republican category to less secure ratings, though they still consider a Republican win likely.
The contest is unfolding amid a political climate challenging Republicans nationally. Spartz has loaned her campaign $450,000, and a Trump-aligned super PAC has begun airing ads in the district. The poll also points to broader voter concerns cited in shifting race ratings, including Trump’s approval and gas and diesel prices, alongside stronger Democratic candidates.
Quantus also repeated a question about Indiana’s secretary of state race and found Democrat Beau Bayh leading Republican Max Engling by just under 3 percentage points, with a similar result to the firm’s earlier survey.