Politics
Texas Senate poll gives Talarico a four-point edge over Paxton
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 51% to 47% among likely voters, with a 3.9-point margin of error. The poll also found Talarico favored on cost-of-living concerns and narrowly ahead on artificial intelligence and data centers as early voting continues.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by four percentage points among likely Texas voters, according to a poll conducted as early voting for the Nov. 3 election got underway.
The Texas Public Opinion Research survey, conducted Oct. 15-18 with 969 likely voters, found 51% backing Talarico and 47% Paxton. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 2%. The poll’s margin of error is 3.9 percentage points, meaning the reported gap is within that range.
Talarico’s lead was one point smaller than in the research group’s September poll and two points smaller than its August survey. Other recent polls have offered conflicting indications of which candidate is ahead.
The survey found Talarico with a sizable advantage among independent voters, 66% to Paxton’s 28%, with Brown at 6%. Talarico also led among Black voters, 87% to 11%, and Latino voters, 60% to 39%, as well as among voters under 55. Paxton led among white voters, 60% to 38%, and voters older than 55. The poll’s reported breakdowns also showed Paxton narrowly ahead among men and voters without a college degree; Talarico led among women.
Voters were also asked which candidate would better address household finances. Talarico was favored over Paxton, 51% to 43%; 3% chose Brown and 4% were unsure. On artificial intelligence and data-center issues, Talarico led 47% to 43%, with 3% choosing Brown and 8% undecided.
Early voting runs through Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3. The poll offers a snapshot of voter preferences, not a prediction of the result, and its close topline margin falls within the stated margin of error.