Local
Chicago-area outlook tilts warmer for winter, but snowfall remains uncertain
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook favors above-average winter temperatures across Chicago as El Niño strengthens. Forecasters see no clear tilt toward wetter or drier conditions locally, and say major snowstorms could still shape the season.
CHICAGO — The Chicago region is likely to have a warmer-than-usual winter, according to the latest federal seasonal outlook, as a strengthening El Niño influences weather patterns across the United States. The forecast offers no clear signal on whether the area will be wetter or drier than average, leaving snowfall totals uncertain.
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook, released Thursday, covers meteorological winter from Dec. 1 through Feb. 28, 2027. It places the Chicago area and much of the Upper Midwest in a zone with increased odds of above-average temperatures.
El Niño occurs when waters in the tropical Pacific become warmer than usual, affecting atmospheric circulation. NOAA National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said a strong El Niño can shift the jet stream south and east, favoring stormier conditions across the South.
In Illinois, El Niño winters typically bring warmer-than-normal temperatures to the Chicago area and often drier-than-normal conditions, according to the state climatologist. But the latest outlook shows roughly equal chances of precipitation finishing above or below average across the Midwest, including Chicago.
That uncertainty matters for snow: the region can see large seasonal swings when one or two major storms move through. Chicago typically gets about two inches of liquid precipitation per winter month and averages roughly seven inches of snow in December and 11 inches in each of January and February. A warmer seasonal outlook does not rule out cold snaps or significant snowstorms.