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Texas Senate contest enters final stretch with Talarico holding 1-point edge over Paxton

Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 46% among likely Texas voters in a new survey, a result within the poll’s margin of error. The closely watched race remains effectively tied with less than seven weeks before Election Day.

Texas Senate contest enters final stretch with Talarico holding 1-point edge over Paxton
Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico holds a narrow 47%-46% advantage over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday. The Hill/Emerson College Polling survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters was conducted Sept. 12-14 and has an approximate margin of error of 3 percentage points. That means the contest remains statistically even, despite Talarico’s slight lead in the survey. The poll follows a series of close results in the race. A Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey released earlier in the week gave Talarico a three-point advantage. Two Siena University polls in June showed the candidates tied, while a late-July survey from the same polling center put Talarico ahead by four points. The Senate contest is unfolding alongside a competitive Texas governor’s race. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott received support from 49% of respondents in the Emerson survey, compared with 46% for Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Voters also were asked about the Republican Party’s two-day midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, where President Donald Trump and other party leaders urged Republicans to turn out in November. Among voters who had heard about the event, 59% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats said it made them more excited to vote. Sixty-eight percent of independent voters said the convention had no effect on their enthusiasm. The economy was the most frequently cited issue in the survey, with 36% of Texans naming it as a top concern. Immigration, education, health care and threats to democracy followed as other major issues. With the election less than seven weeks away, the poll underscores how little separates the Senate candidates and how much the outcome could depend on turnout, undecided voters and the ability of both campaigns to define the stakes for Texans.

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