A new Texas poll shows Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa holding a four-point advantage over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in the 2026 governor’s race, with independent voters driving much of the shift. Hinojosa received support from 49% of likely voters, compared with 45% for Abbott, according to the ReconMR Texas Poll released Thursday. In July, Abbott led 46% to 45%. Hinojosa also trailed Abbott in June, when the governor led 49% to 43%. The movement was especially pronounced among independents and voters who identified with neither major party. Hinojosa led Abbott among that group by 65% to 27%, a 38-point margin. In July, she led independents 49% to 36%. The poll found a regional divide. Hinojosa led in Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio and South Texas, while Abbott maintained a substantial advantage in rural areas. Despite Hinojosa’s lead in the hypothetical vote, 62% of respondents said they believed Abbott would ultimately win. Nearly one-third of Hinojosa supporters also expected Abbott to prevail. The candidates’ overall images were sharply different. Hinojosa’s favorability rating was 48% favorable to 27% unfavorable, while Abbott’s was 45% favorable to 53% unfavorable. Abbott’s job approval matched that negative balance, with 45% approving and 53% disapproving of his performance as governor. Voters gave Hinojosa an edge on issues tied to household costs and public resources. Fifty-one percent said she would do a better job making prices more affordable, compared with 44% for Abbott. She also led on managing Texas’ water supply, 49% to 43%, and narrowly led on overseeing data-center construction, 45% to 42%. Abbott remained stronger on border security and public safety. Fifty-three percent said he would do a better job securing the border with Mexico, compared with 39% for Hinojosa. He led on keeping Texans safe, 49% to 44%. A majority of respondents described Hinojosa as authentic, honest and qualified to serve as governor. Abbott held an advantage on qualifications, 56% to 53%, and was narrowly ahead on being in touch with Texas values, 50% to 52% for Hinojosa. But only 45% called Abbott authentic and 41% called him honest, compared with 55% and 51%, respectively, for Hinojosa. The Senate contest moved further toward Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. He led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 43%, up from a 47%-to-43% advantage in July. Among independents, Talarico led 64% to 24%, compared with a 53%-to-30% edge in July. Talarico’s favorability rating rose to 50% favorable and 39% unfavorable. Paxton’s rating was 38% favorable to 55% unfavorable. Still, voters were nearly split on who they expected to win the Senate race: 48% chose Talarico and 45% chose Paxton. The other statewide contests remained close. Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton led Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson 45% to 44% in the attorney general’s race. Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin led Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 47% to 46%. The survey also found broad concern about the direction of the state. Fifty-five percent said Texas was headed in the wrong direction, while 37% said it was on the right track. Nationally, 61% said the United States was headed in the wrong direction and 34% said it was on the right track. On several policy questions, voters opposed the recent expansion of surveillance and restrictions on cannabis. Fifty-five percent opposed Flock cameras, which share license-plate and vehicle information with law enforcement; opposition included 69% of Democrats and 67% of independents, while 53% of Republicans supported the cameras. Six in 10 voters opposed enforcement of Texas’ THC ban, including majorities of Democrats and independents. The ReconMR poll surveyed 614 likely Texas voters from Sept. 8 through Sept. 11 by telephone and text-to-web responses. The core survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points; a separate full-survey sample of 451 respondents has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. As with all polls, sampling error is only one potential source of uncertainty.