A New York Times/Siena poll released Oct. 3 and a Marist poll released Sept. 23 each showed Hinojosa leading Abbott by three percentage points. Other recent surveys still put Abbott ahead. The polling marks a contrast with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s 2022 campaign, when he lost to Abbott by 10.9 points; Abbott won by wider margins against Wendy Davis in 2014 and Lupe Valdez in 2018.

The financial gap has also narrowed. Abbott outspent Hinojosa six to one from July through late September and began the election cycle with more than $105 million available, while Hinojosa had less than $1 million before a late fundraising surge. On Oct. 5, her campaign reported raising more than $25 million overall, including $13 million in its latest reporting period from about 136,000 donors. Roughly three-quarters of those donors were contributing for the first time. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and the Democratic Governors Association have each committed at least $1 million, according to reporting cited in the campaign coverage.

Hinojosa, an Austin Democrat who has represented House District 49 since 2017, said voters she has met across Texas are focused on schools and affordability rather than partisan fights. She has also criticized the growth of data centers, arguing that communities should have more say over projects that affect energy costs and local resources. Her campaign frames those concerns as a question of whether state policy serves residents or powerful business interests.

Public schools are a central part of her message. Hinojosa previously served on the Austin ISD school board, including as president, and says she would replace Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath on her first day in office. She has criticized the state’s accountability system and STAAR testing, and backed proposals for independent, nationally norm-referenced assessments that measure student growth. Austin ISD is awaiting a state decision that could lead to a takeover, with elected trustees replaced by state-appointed managers.

Hinojosa has also proposed using part of Texas’ $27 billion Rainy Day Fund to distribute $1,500 to each household, freezing electricity rates, requiring large companies and data centers to pay what she calls their fair share, and barring health insurers from denying claims in bad faith. She says she could pursue parts of that agenda even with a Republican-majority Legislature, pointing to bipartisan work on a bill expanding information for families of children with special education needs.

Her campaign’s cross-party appeal remains an open question. Hinojosa says she has heard concerns about schools, prices and corporate power from Republicans and independents as well as Democrats. State Rep. Christian Manuel, a Democrat from the Beaumont area who has worked with her on legislation, described her as willing to negotiate but unwilling to abandon her core positions. He said voters in his conservative region are expressing more openness to supporting a Democrat—or sitting out the governor’s race—particularly over data-center development.

The election will test whether Hinojosa’s message and new fundraising can overcome Abbott’s financial advantage and the state’s long record of Republican statewide victories. Texas last elected a Democrat to statewide office in 1994.