Politics
Texas midterm contests remain within polling margin as economic worries top voters’ concerns
A University of Texas poll puts Democrats narrowly ahead in several statewide races, including James Talarico over Ken Paxton and Gina Hinojosa over Greg Abbott. Every matchup measured falls within the poll’s margin of error.
AUSTIN — Democrats hold small leads in several Texas statewide races, but a new poll shows no clear front-runner as voters head toward Election Day, with every contest within the survey’s margin of error.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project surveyed 1,200 registered voters from Sept. 25 through Oct. 5. The margin of error is 2.83 percentage points for the full sample and 3.34 points for questions about statewide races.
Among likely voters, Democrat James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 47% in the U.S. Senate race. Democrat Gina Hinojosa had a 49%-to-48% edge over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. The narrow differences are not enough to establish a statistically decisive lead, given the poll’s margin of error.
The poll also found Democrat Vikki Goodwin ahead of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, 49% to 46%. In the attorney general contest, Democrat Nathan Johnson led Republican Mayes Middleton 48% to 47%. Republican Don Huffines was ahead of Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 47% to 46% in the comptroller race, while Democrat Jon Rosenthal led Republican Bo French 47% to 46% in the railroad commissioner contest.
Economic pressures ranked highest among Texans’ concerns. Twenty-one percent named inflation or higher prices as the state’s most important problem, followed by political corruption or leadership at 15% and the economy at 10%. No other issue reached 10%. Nationally, 28% cited inflation or higher prices as the leading concern.
The survey also found that 50% of respondents viewed President Donald Trump unfavorably, compared with 42% who viewed him favorably. Abbott’s job approval stood at 44%, while 45% disapproved. Paxton’s approval was 35%, with 46% disapproving; Patrick’s approval was 33%, and 39% disapproved.
The results offer a snapshot of a highly competitive election season, not a prediction of the outcome. With the leading candidates separated by only a few points, turnout and changes in voter preferences could matter substantially in the remaining weeks of the campaign.