The stark projections were presented Tuesday to a 12-member workgroup of business and transportation experts convened by Gov. Tina Kotek to recommend solutions to the agency's funding crisis. The group, which met in Salem, has until Dec. 15 to deliver its report to the governor.

Susan Peithman, ODOT's climate director, outlined the consequences of inaction: major construction projects would stall, 30 nonhighway infrastructure projects from the Connect Oregon program would be shelved, and maintenance work would shift almost entirely to reactive repairs and emergency responses.

"Oregon's multimodal freight system is key to economic development, especially as it relates to national and international trade," said workgroup member Gale Castillo, former longtime president of the Hispanic Metropolitan Chamber. "This is where we send freight out and bring freight in and distribute it. Without that, we don't have access to those markets."

The human toll would be significant. ODOT projects a 15% increase in roadway fatalities and serious injuries over the next decade, while 30% fewer teenagers would receive driver education. Public transit services statewide would be cut by 20%, affecting roughly 94,000 riders who would lose access. About 40% of priority walking and biking routes would remain unfinished.

Passenger rail would be particularly hard hit. Daily service would drop from two round trips to one in 2031, and all passenger rail service would end in 2032, Peithman said.

The funding crisis comes after Oregon voters decisively rejected a 2025 transportation package in a May referendum. More than 80% of voters opposed increases to the gas tax, payroll tax, and vehicle registration and title fees that would have raised $4.3 billion over the next decade. The package had been pushed by Kotek and Democratic lawmakers.

Kotek has since shifted her approach. At a press conference last week, she told reporters her 2027 budget recommendations would require ODOT to operate within existing revenue.

"Now that's a trade-off, because that means taking money away from highway projects and other things to pay for basic operations and maintenance. But that's what you'll see in my budget," she said.

The governor added that if lawmakers want a different approach, they will have to "come to the table" and discuss it.

The workgroup is considering several funding scenarios. One would require raising $644 million annually, with 73% dedicated to maintenance and operations, but would allocate nothing toward major construction or nonhighway infrastructure. The most comprehensive scenario would require $1.38 billion annually to support maintenance, public transit, major projects, safety, nonhighway infrastructure, pedestrian paths, and passenger rail. Under that scenario, more than 60% would go to operations and maintenance, about a quarter to public transit, 7% to major projects, and 4% to nonhighway modes.

The workgroup will meet again Nov. 19 to finalize three funding scenarios to present to Kotek in December. The recommendations must include investment scenarios, funding options, and policy proposals to improve accountability and efficiency within the agency.

This is the fifth budget cycle in which ODOT has faced the prospect of cutting services and staff unless lawmakers find new revenue or rearrange existing funding—a move Republicans have long advocated and which Kotek now appears willing to consider.