The drawdown plan would require bulk terminal operators to reduce tank capacity by at least 20% by 2036. Utility storage, including NW Natural's liquefied natural gas tank, and sustainable aviation fuel would be exempt. Council members will also vote on zoning and comprehensive plan changes that would bar expansion at the hub except through a rigorous land-use review and without increasing overall storage capacity; sustainable aviation fuel storage could grow by up to 5% of a terminal's existing capacity.

The stakes reach far beyond Portland. Fuel arrives from outside Oregon, is stored at the hub and is distributed to gas stations, airports and commercial users across the state and parts of Washington. A spill or fire during a Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could devastate nearby communities and disrupt fuel supplies statewide.

The city has restricted new fossil-fuel storage and expansion at the hub since 2016, surviving years of industry legal challenges. But the harder question — what to do about fuel already sitting in tanks built before modern seismic standards — has gone unanswered until now.

"This is really a turning point, I hope, for all of us," Council Vice President Olivia Clark said at a meeting last month.

The policy rests partly on the assumption that Oregonians will need far less liquid fuel as electric vehicles, transit, biking and renewable fuels displace gasoline and diesel. The Oregon Department of Energy has modeled a 70% decline in statewide fuel consumption by 2050, but the agency cautions the shift may take longer than the city expects. Federal policy changes have slowed electric vehicle sales and manufacturing, driving has not fallen substantially and biking in Portland remains flat. Lower-carbon alternatives such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel still require storage and carry spill and fire risks.

"It frankly wouldn't be possible to accurately forecast Oregon's needs in 10 or 20 years as it's difficult to predict transportation activities that far out," Maxwell Woods, the department's assistant director for nuclear safety and energy security, told The Oregonian/OregonLive.

Activists who spent more than a decade pressing the city say the requirement may do little to reduce the fuel actually on site, because neither the city nor the state knows precisely how much is in the tanks. They had sought a drawdown tied to actual inventories and Oregon consumption rather than tank capacity. A 2022 Multnomah County report estimated active tanks at the hub had about 333 million gallons of total capacity but held about 234 million gallons on average — roughly two-thirds full.

"The fuel reduction requirement is really a stopgap," said Nikki Mandell, a Portland activist with a group focused on reducing risks at the hub. "But it's an important marker, a new program that did not exist before, and it commits the city to making it better."

The city's Bureau of Planning and Sustainability said the 20% figure came from modeling by a city-hired consultant, which found the hub would still meet Oregon's projected fuel needs. City planner Tom Armstrong said the analysis used a conservative demand scenario incorporating recent Trump administration policies. The ordinance requires the city administrator to recommend an alternative approach by June 2027 and directs the city to begin collecting fuel inventories by type, allowing a future council to base reductions on volumes rather than capacity.

"We need to know how much fuel is actually there to reduce it. If there's less fuel, there's less risk," Mandell said.

State officials and the fuel industry have warned against cutting capacity too deeply, saying the hub buffers the region against supply disruptions. That vulnerability was on display last year when a leak shut down the Olympic Pipeline — the main line carrying fuel from Washington refineries to Portland — for more than a week, prompting the governor to declare a fuel emergency.

"In times of emergency, large fuel storage capacity acts as a buffer for Oregonians' fuel needs," Woods said.

Moving the hub elsewhere, as some advocates have demanded, isn't feasible, Woods said: it is built around a regional network of pipeline, marine, rail and road connections, and the terminals are privately owned, so neither the state nor the city can dictate their location. State officials point to the Department of Environmental Quality's new fuel tank seismic stability program, which requires large terminals to assess earthquake vulnerabilities and plan reductions, as the most important tool for existing tanks.

Activists counter that the program will take years to implement and won't eliminate risk or limit expansion. Mandell argued Portland should not rely on the market to shrink storage even if demand falls, because private operators can sell fuel outside Oregon. Ultimately, she said, lawmakers must diversify where the state stores its fuel rather than concentrating nearly all of it in one place.

"If something happens here," she said, "the entire state is vulnerable."

Councilor Steve Novick, who plans to support the drawdown, added a provision calling for more Portland Clean Energy Fund spending on transit, biking, walking and electric vehicles to reduce fossil fuel demand. He acknowledged the limits of the city's authority.

"If demand does go down, then I don't see any reason not to require that operators at the hub reduce their storage capacity," Novick said. "But we need to realize that unless demand goes down, the state's not going to let us implement the drawdown."

Councilors are expected to approve the policies, which carry little political risk because their effects will be felt years from now and a future council can revise them.