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Xi’s Washington visit comes as Iran war boosts China’s energy influence

President Donald Trump is expected to press Chinese President Xi Jinping over Beijing’s ties with Iran during a Wednesday meeting in Washington. Analysts say the conflict has instead strengthened China’s leverage through oil stockpiles, petroleum exports and its dominance of clean-energy manufacturing.

Xi’s Washington visit comes as Iran war boosts China’s energy influence
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is expected to confront Chinese President Xi Jinping over China’s energy relationship with Iran when the leaders meet Wednesday, but analysts say the war has given Beijing little incentive to accommodate U.S. demands. The conflict has driven global energy and commodity prices higher, with benchmark oil trading at about $100 a barrel Tuesday. While the price shock is creating political pressure for Trump and his party, China has used its large crude reserves, petroleum exports and clean-energy manufacturing base to present itself as a more stable partner to countries exposed to turmoil in the Middle East. “China absolutely has been a big winner,” said Erica Downs, a former CIA energy analyst and senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. She said China had managed the crisis relatively well and that Xi was unlikely to feel pressure to respond to U.S. requests. A senior White House official said the administration would tell Xi that continued business with Iran and its government was unacceptable and would bring consequences. But energy executives and foreign-policy analysts expressed limited expectations for concrete progress during the meeting. Philip Luck, an international business analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former State Department official, said the war appeared to be consuming much of the administration’s attention. The result, he said, was limited preparation for the summit. The meeting also highlights a contradiction in U.S. policy. China has been the main buyer of Iranian and Venezuelan crude, while the Trump administration has taken steps that make it more expensive for Beijing to obtain those supplies. Trump said Tuesday at the United Nations that the United States had a primary claim to Venezuela’s oil, declaring, “To the victor belong the spoils.” At the same time, Washington wants China to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and gas and buy more U.S. energy. China has largely stopped purchasing U.S. natural gas directly since Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods last year. Chinese purchases of U.S. crude oil have also halted, although imports of refined fuel from American refineries have recovered in recent months. The administration had argued that tariffs could pressure Beijing to loosen its control over critical minerals and increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas. Those goals have not yet been achieved, and an energy-industry executive who spoke anonymously said the summit was unlikely to unlock a major agreement. China’s influence extends beyond its role as the world’s largest oil importer. Its purchasing power has helped it build substantial crude reserves, while its participation — or absence — in regional petroleum markets can affect energy prices and supplies for consumers elsewhere. China is also expanding its influence by exporting solar panels, electric vehicles and other clean-energy equipment to countries seeking alternatives to Middle Eastern oil and gas. That strategy reflects a broader shift in how governments define energy security, Downs said: control over technology may matter as much as control over physical fuel supplies. Ethan Zindler, head of country and policy research at BloombergNEF and a former Treasury Department official, said the war was opening new markets for Chinese clean-energy companies, particularly in developing countries. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, he said, Chinese solar equipment can provide a faster route to electrification than imported oil. The conflict could therefore deepen China’s advantage over Western clean-technology manufacturers even as the United States tries to use trade and energy policy to constrain Beijing. For communities facing higher fuel and electricity costs, the geopolitical contest is likely to remain tied to questions of affordability, supply security and the pace of the global transition away from fossil fuels.

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