Thursday, September 24, 2026·Focal News

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Tariffs, fuel prices put Republican strongholds on 2026 defensive map

Republican leaders are expanding their midterm campaign spending into heavily pro-Trump districts as anger over tariffs, diesel costs and inflation threatens GOP control of Congress. Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska are among the states drawing new attention from party strategists and allied super PACs.

Tariffs, fuel prices put Republican strongholds on 2026 defensive map
Republicans are moving to protect congressional seats in territory long considered safely conservative, as voter frustration over high prices and President Donald Trump’s trade policies reshapes the 2026 midterm battlefield. The party has booked more than $110 million in advertising since Aug. 1 in Republican-held House districts where Trump won by double digits in 2024, signaling that GOP leaders are no longer focusing only on the traditional group of competitive seats. Nearly two-thirds of House advertising money booked or spent during that period has gone toward defending Republican incumbents, according to an analysis of AdImpact data. The defensive push is especially pronounced across the Midwest, where tariffs and rising diesel prices are creating political problems for Republicans. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted is receiving particular attention from the party, with Trump and Vice President JD Vance expected to visit the state before the election to support his campaign, according to people familiar with the plans. Republicans are also increasingly focused on Senate contests in Iowa and Kansas, while privately expressing less confidence in North Carolina and Georgia. One senior GOP official described the party’s challenge as an effort to prevent problems from spreading across the map. “The map is hilariously big right now,” a national Republican pollster said. Republican-aligned groups have a substantial financial advantage over Democrats, allowing them to spend in districts that would not normally be viewed as competitive. MAGA Inc.-aligned super PACs have spent in 42 House districts, including 30 defensive contests and 12 races where Republicans are seeking to gain ground. The districts receiving that spending backed Trump by an average of 7.9 percentage points in 2024. Some of the spending is aimed not only at helping incumbents but also at discouraging Democrats from investing in conservative areas. Republican groups have put nearly $18 million behind Ohio Rep. Max Miller, $14.6 million into a Texas race involving Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Tejano singer Bobby Pulido, and $9.6 million into Alaska, where Rep. Nick Begich faces independent challenger Bill Hill. “The voter enthusiasm for Republican voters is not where it needs to be, but that’s where a money advantage can make a really big impact,” said Mark Bednar, a Republican strategist and former communications director for then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Economic concerns are also forcing some Republican candidates to distance themselves from the administration. Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and Michigan Senate nominee Mike Rogers have called for an end to the war in Iran, citing the effect of conflict and energy costs on voters. A Michigan Republican acknowledged that tariffs are a particularly damaging issue in the state’s Senate contest between Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. “Everywhere we go, we are getting hammered on it,” the Republican said. “It’s crushing us.” Internal Republican polling has shown Trump’s approval below 50 percent in deeply conservative states. A recent Iowa poll by a Democratic-leaning firm gave Democrat Josh Turek a one-point lead in the Senate race and put Trump’s approval at 43 percent in a state he won by more than 13 points in 2024. The pressure is also being felt in Ohio, where Republicans are trying to hold Husted’s seat against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. The cryptocurrency-focused super PAC Fairshake has announced plans to spend $30 million attacking Brown, after spending more than $40 million against him during the 2024 election. “The stakes go far beyond one Senate seat,” said Amy Natoce, a spokesperson for Husted’s campaign, arguing that Senate control would determine whether Republicans or Democrats set the agenda in Washington. Republicans retain important structural advantages. Democrats must defend all of their Senate seats this cycle while winning four Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber. GOP strategists remain optimistic about potential gains in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire, and public polling has made Minnesota more competitive than expected. In the House, Republicans also expect new congressional maps drawn during the current redistricting fight to produce at least six additional seats for the party. But Democratic lawmakers and strategists say the economic backlash is opening opportunities in states that would normally be out of reach, including Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi. Republican lawmakers have pressed the White House for steps to reduce fuel prices and increase refinery capacity. A group of House Republicans unsuccessfully sought a vote to suspend the federal gas tax through Election Day, while Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley publicly urged Trump to restrict diesel exports. The party’s concern reflects a broader political calculation: campaign spending can defend vulnerable candidates, but it may not overcome sustained economic pain if voters continue to see tariffs and energy costs as evidence that the administration is making their household budgets worse. “The question is: How much longer can we go?” one senior House Republican said.

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