The state legislature redrew the district late last year. Under the new boundaries, President Donald Trump would have carried the seat by more than 11 percentage points in 2024. But Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, a retired Army colonel who lost the race two years ago, is facing incumbent Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a contest now considered highly competitive.

Trump urged voters to support Buckhout and other Republican candidates at an Oct. 20 rally in Greenville, saying House Speaker Mike Johnson had asked him to make a special appeal because their races would be close. Buckhout told the crowd that Republicans had a numerical advantage and needed to turn out their voters.

An analysis of AdImpact data puts advertising spending in the 1st District race above $42 million from Sept. 1 through Election Day, making it one of the most expensive House contests in the country.

Davis is campaigning in parts of the district he has not represented before. The new map removed his home county and added all or portions of six counties, including Onslow County. At an early-voting site in Swansboro, a voter told Davis he did not live in the district. Davis said it was his third campaign under a third map.

The redrawn lines have changed the district, but Davis says concerns about everyday costs remain consistent across eastern North Carolina. He has pointed to high fuel prices affecting farmers, truckers and fishermen, saying for many people the issue is whether they can “make it and survive.”

North Carolina political consultant Morgan Jackson said Davis has proved difficult to beat because of his strength as a local campaigner. Nathan Gonzales, editor of Inside Elections, said some incumbents targeted by redistricting chose to run again and now appear well positioned to win.

Republican-led states redrew maps after pressure from Trump and his political team, seeking a buffer against the president’s party’s typical losses in midterm elections. Gonzales said Republicans created an advantage in 15 congressional districts nationwide, but several races expected to be straightforward have become expensive fights.

The contest in North Carolina is not the only example. Two Florida districts redrawn to displace Democratic incumbents are approaching a combined $90 million in advertising spending, while some Texas districts designed to give Trump a 10-point advantage have shifted toward Democrats. A previously safe Republican seat in Texas is also at risk, according to the race assessments cited by political analysts.

A Republican strategist involved in midterm races argued that redistricting creates new battlegrounds rather than determining who wins. Still, the competitiveness of races such as North Carolina’s 1st shows that district lines alone cannot settle an election: candidate strength, voter concerns and turnout remain decisive.