NOAA plans to send four unmanned, wind-powered Saildrones into the equatorial Pacific to measure ocean conditions during a developing super El Niño, but the agency says it has no specific ship or aircraft missions planned for the event. Additional research, potentially backed by $2 million to $5 million, depends on Congress approving a budget as the climate pattern approaches its winter peak. The Pacific phenomenon can shift weather across the globe, contributing to destructive rain and flooding in some areas and drought in others. Scientists say detailed measurements taken while El Niño unfolds could help improve forecasts and give communities more time to prepare for dangerous conditions. The current research plan is far smaller than NOAA’s response to the 2015-16 El Niño. That campaign used a research ship, aircraft, weather balloons and unmanned aircraft to collect data over the Pacific, including measurements that were fed into weather models. NOAA researchers later recommended preparing a similar effort for the next major event. Now, the agency’s proposed work is constrained by a tight timeline and budget uncertainty. The federal government is operating under a temporary funding measure through Dec. 11, and NOAA says the additional projects depend on Congress passing a new budget. The El Niño could reach its peak in November or December, leaving little time to organize a large field campaign. NOAA’s research capacity is also under pressure. The Trump administration’s fiscal 2027 budget proposal seeks to eliminate funding for the agency’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, which studies climate and ocean patterns, and transfer some research functions to the National Weather Service. The administration also seeks broader cuts to climate research. Congress preserved the office in last year’s budget, though some funding was shifted. NOAA has lost more than 2,000 employees since President Donald Trump began his second term, according to the figures cited by the agency’s researchers. The administration had also moved to end support for an ocean monitoring system that collects sea-temperature data, but reversed that decision after scientists objected. El Niño occurs when a broad stretch of equatorial Pacific water becomes unusually warm, releasing heat into the atmosphere and influencing weather far beyond the ocean. These events recur every two to seven years; exceptionally strong ones are rarer, leaving scientists with relatively few well-observed cases. The 1982-83 event, one of the first strong El Niños monitored by satellite, was complicated by a volcanic eruption that affected atmospheric measurements. The previous major research campaign showed why field observations matter. In 2015-16, forecasters anticipated heavy rain in California that largely did not arrive, while South Carolina suffered catastrophic flooding. Researchers say better observations could help improve both immediate storm forecasts and longer-range predictions about how El Niño develops. “Field data is irreplaceable,” said Michael McPhaden, a senior scientist at the University of Washington and former NOAA researcher. He said more well-sampled events are needed to understand how El Niño works and strengthen prediction. The research could also help scientists assess whether human-caused climate change is influencing the intensity of El Niño. The planet has warmed about 1.5 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times, with most excess heat absorbed by the ocean. Some studies suggest El Niños may be intensifying, but researchers say the mechanisms remain uncertain and models still need improvement. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, called the event a major natural experiment, while stressing that it is likely to bring harm. Scientists say the practical value of studying it is not only academic: better forecasts can help public agencies and residents prepare for floods, droughts and other extreme weather.