Politics
Lawler’s Trump alliance faces a test from swing voters in New York’s 17th District
Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is seeking a third term in a district that backed Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrat Cait Conley courts independents and disaffected Republicans. More than $40 million has already gone to advertising in a race that could help determine control of the House.
ROCKLAND COUNTY, N.Y. — Rep. Mike Lawler is campaigning for reelection as both a local advocate and a Republican willing to differ with his party, a balancing act that will be tested by voters in New York’s closely contested 17th Congressional District.
The district, a collection of suburbs and commuter communities around the Hudson River Valley, elected Lawler in 2024 even as it voted for Democrat Kamala Harris for president. His contest with Democrat Cait Conley is among the country’s most competitive House races, and its outcome could affect which party controls the chamber.
Lawler points to disagreements with the Trump administration, including his opposition to ending protections that had shielded nearly 350,000 Haitian migrants from deportation. He said he helped secure a temporary extension of work authorization for people covered by the program, but that extension has since expired.
He has also highlighted his efforts to increase the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT, an important issue for many residents of the high-tax district. But Lawler voted for President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax and spending legislation. Critics have focused on its substantial reductions to federal health care funding.
At the Republican National Convention in September, Lawler described his relationship with Trump as one in which they sometimes disagree, but said the president would listen when challenged. The congressman has not distanced himself from Trump, whose low approval ratings and the GOP’s standing in national polling could pose risks for Republicans in competitive districts.
In an interview during Rockland County’s volunteer firefighters parade, Lawler argued that voters would judge his record and knowledge of the district, not simply their feelings about the president. He said residents cared about policy and results, and expressed confidence in his reelection effort.
Some voters are unconvinced. Brett Silverstein, a parent from Westchester County, pointed to energy costs and said Lawler’s association with Trump made him skeptical. Mike Monroe, a Rockland County voter who supported Lawler previously but plans to oppose him, said he viewed the congressman as willing to challenge the administration only on issues where doing so carried little consequence.
Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official in the Biden administration, is trying to draw support from Democrats, independents and Republicans unhappy with Lawler. She has made the cost of food, housing, health care and electricity central to her pitch, arguing that residents across party lines are struggling with household expenses.
Conley has also sought to keep distance from some prominent Democrats, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and has not publicly campaigned with Gov. Kathy Hochul. The approach reflects the district’s large pool of voters who do not reliably stick with one party.
Democratic pollster Evan Roth Smith, whose firm Slingshot Strategies has surveyed the district, estimates that 30% to 40% of voters are ticket-splitters or only loosely aligned with a party. That makes local concerns and candidate appeal especially important, he said.
Retired builder Michael Alvarado of Stony Point, who supported Lawler in the previous election, said he has not decided how to vote. He said he is looking for a candidate who supports unions and would reduce school and property taxes, but has not yet heard a proposal that satisfies him.
With less than a month before Election Day, Republican- and Democratic-aligned groups have spent more than $40 million combined on advertising in the race, underscoring its importance to both parties. For voters in the 17th District, the contest centers on whether Lawler can maintain support among moderates while remaining aligned with his party—and whether Conley can persuade voters that she offers a better response to the pressures they face.