Politics
Election doubts rise ahead of 2026 midterms, but turnout impact remains unclear
Polls show widespread concern about ballot access, mail delivery and political disputes, even as most voters say they trust local election officials. Researchers say there is no clear evidence that lower confidence leads to lower turnout—and fear may even motivate some voters to participate.
As the 2026 midterms approach, voters are voicing concerns about whether elections will be fair, whether mail ballots will arrive on time and whether political disputes could affect their votes. Election officials say the uncertainty is reaching voters, but political scientists caution that its effect on turnout is hard to predict.
The concerns follow months of legal wrangling over President Donald Trump’s proposed restrictions on mail voting. The Supreme Court halted the proposal last week, and no mail-voting rules have changed. Still, local officials say voters have questions about how to cast ballots and whether their votes will count.
Carly Koppes, a Republican election official in Weld County, Colorado, said voters have asked her how they can obtain ballots and ensure those ballots are counted. In 22 years overseeing elections, she said, “Absolutely, this is the most uncertain.”
Fewer than half of voters surveyed this month by the University of California San Diego said they expect the midterms to be free and fair. Yet a separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that about three-quarters trust their state and local election officials to run a fair election.
The surveys also found specific anxieties. Four in 10 respondents to the UC San Diego poll expected federal immigration enforcement agents to be at polling places in their area, despite federal law barring armed federal troops from election sites. The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey found that the share of voters who expect mail ballots to be delivered on time has fallen 13 percentage points in two years. Another national poll found 62% worry that legal or political disputes over election rules could affect whether their ballot is counted.
Election officials say they are trying to address concerns without amplifying fears. Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon said officials need to be candid about possible challenges while reassuring voters that legal protections and contingency plans are in place. Connecticut Secretary of State Stephanie Thomas has described constituents who feel afraid but struggle to identify what they fear will happen.
Whether anxiety will keep people from voting is not settled. Midterm elections typically draw fewer voters than presidential contests, but Lauren Prather, a political science professor at UC San Diego, said researchers lack strong evidence that people who trust elections less are less likely to vote.
Turnout could even rise if voters respond to perceived threats by mobilizing, said Dartmouth political scientist Brendan Nyhan. Recent elections have drawn historically high participation despite widespread distrust, he noted, in part because voters on both sides see elections as winnable.
But higher turnout would not erase the risks to democracy, Nyhan said. Persistent distrust could make it easier for political leaders to challenge results and weaken confidence in legitimate outcomes after votes are counted. For election officials, the challenge is not only helping voters participate, but ensuring the public accepts the results.