A sharp shift among young male voters is reshaping the political landscape ahead of November’s congressional elections, with Democratic candidates holding a 17-point lead over Republicans among likely male voters ages 18 to 30, according to a new Cygnal poll. The survey found that Democrats lead 57% to 40% on the generic congressional ballot among that group. President Donald Trump, who narrowly won young men in 2024 according to national exit polls, had a 38% favorable rating and a 55% unfavorable rating among respondents. The results suggest that Republicans’ gains among young men in the 2024 election may be fading, particularly among voters most likely to cast ballots. The party’s overall favorability among young men stood at 40% favorable and 49% unfavorable, for a net rating of minus 9 points. Economic concerns dominated the survey. Nearly three in 10 respondents, or 29%, identified inflation and the cost of living as the issue most likely to determine their vote. Another 14% selected housing costs and the ability to afford a home. Asked which policies would most improve their lives, respondents most often chose reducing the price of goods, lowering housing costs and cutting taxes. The findings point to a voter group focused less on cultural messaging than on whether political leaders can make everyday expenses more manageable. Young men were split over whether the country’s rules work in their favor. Forty-seven percent said the system is set up to help young men, while 43% said it works against them. Both major parties received relatively weak ratings from the group. The Democratic Party’s net favorability was minus 1 point, while the Republican Party’s was minus 9. Vice President JD Vance had a 37% favorable rating and a net favorability score of minus 10. Trump’s net favorability was lower, at minus 17. “They’re pretty down on institutions and political figures,” said Alex Tarascio, a Cygnal pollster and principal. “This one isn’t any exception to that.” The survey also raises questions about Republican turnout efforts. Trump and conservative organizations made extensive use of podcasts and online influencers popular with young men during the 2024 campaign. But among young men who were least likely to vote, Trump’s net favorability was minus 22, compared with minus 19 among those most likely to vote. “If Trump gets in front of them, I don’t think it’s a bad bet, but for some of these people it could backfire,” Tarascio said. Young men are only one segment of the electorate and vote at lower rates than older voters and women of the same age. Still, their lack of enthusiasm could matter in close congressional contests, where small changes in turnout can affect control of the House or Senate. Among all registered voters surveyed, including people less likely to vote, the Democratic advantage was considerably narrower: 44% to 41% on the generic ballot. Cygnal conducted the poll from Sept. 15 through Sept. 18 among 800 registered male voters ages 18 to 30. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.