The poll also puts Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes 12 points ahead of Republican Alexander Kolodin and Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes 15 points ahead of Republican Warren Petersen. Democratic candidates are ahead by high single-digit margins in the races for state treasurer and superintendent of public instruction.

The reported leads come despite Republicans having about 300,000 more registered voters statewide than Democrats. HighGround President Chuck Coughlin said 25% to 30% of Republican voters in the poll were not supporting their party’s candidates. He said the level of defections surprised his firm, which he believes would normally expect a statewide candidate to receive support from 90% to 95% of their party’s voters.

Some Phoenix-area voters interviewed Tuesday said President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s leadership were influencing their choices. Stan Taylor, a registered Republican, said he planned to vote for Hobbs. His friend Kim Roberts also said she intended to support the incumbent. Another voter described the party’s leadership as frightening.

Biggs’ campaign challenged both the poll’s results and the pollster’s independence. A campaign spokesperson pointed to Coughlin’s company’s work for a firm that is financing attack ads supporting Hobbs. Coughlin responded that HighGround conducted the poll with its own money and did not seek outside resources for it.

The survey offers a snapshot of voter sentiment, not a prediction of the outcome. Its findings suggest that party registration alone may not capture the dynamics of Arizona’s statewide races, where candidate support and views of national political leadership could shape the final vote.