Democrats lead all five statewide contests tested in a new Arizona poll, with Gov. Katie Hobbs holding the largest advantage as voters begin receiving their early ballots. The HighGround Public Affairs survey of 400 likely voters, released Tuesday, Oct. 13, found Hobbs ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, 50.5% to 33.7%. Election Day is Nov. 3. Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes leads Republican state Senate President Warren Petersen by 15 percentage points, while Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is nearly 12 points ahead of Republican state Rep. Alexander Kolodin, according to the poll. In open contests, Democrat Nick Mansour leads Republican Elijah Norton by 9 points for state treasurer. Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz leads Republican Kimberly Yee, the current treasurer, 44.7% to 38.3% in the race for superintendent of public instruction. The poll suggests Republican candidates have yet to consolidate support within their own party. They are receiving between 68% and 75% of Republican voters; Biggs has 70.6% support among Republicans. By comparison, HighGround polling at a similar point in 2024 put Donald Trump’s Republican support at 88%. Exit polls later showed Trump won 93% of Arizona Republicans that year. HighGround’s model assumes Republicans will make up 8 percentage points more of the electorate than Democrats, a typical pattern for an Arizona midterm. Democrats lead in the survey despite that assumption, with independents helping Hobbs: she receives 58% support among independent voters, compared with 20.5% for Biggs. “There’s a built-in Republican advantage in the state, and right now those candidates are not taking advantage of it,” Paul Bentz, HighGround’s senior vice president of research and strategy, said in an interview. Bentz said campaigns often tighten as Election Day approaches and some voters may be reluctant to tell pollsters how they intend to vote. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, meaning close results should be interpreted cautiously. The poll is a snapshot of likely voters, not a forecast of the final result.