Politics
Pennsylvania Senate races put Democrats’ stalled agenda within reach — if they can flip two seats
With Pennsylvania Democrats holding the governor’s office and state House, flipping at least two Republican Senate seats could give the party a governing trifecta for the first time since 1993. The contest is drawing millions in campaign spending as both parties argue over wages, transit, taxes and public safety.
HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania Democrats are making a bid to end decades without full control of state government, targeting Republican-held Senate seats in the Nov. 3 election while Gov. Josh Shapiro campaigns for a Democratic majority that could advance policies blocked in the divided legislature.
Democrats currently hold the governorship and a narrow majority in the state House. Republicans control the Senate, 27-23. If Democrats flip two Republican seats and retain a seat they won in a 2025 special election in Lancaster County, the chamber would be tied. Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, who presides over the Senate, could help Democrats break ties. If Democrats lose the Lancaster seat, they would need to flip three Republican seats to take control.
The last time one party controlled the governor’s office and both legislative chambers was 1993, when Democrats held a trifecta. Republicans most recently had unified control after the 2010 election, maintaining it for four years until Democrat Tom Wolf won the governorship.
A Democratic Senate majority could shift the prospects for legislation that has stalled amid years of divided government and budget disputes. Shapiro has said his priorities include raising Pennsylvania’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, protecting abortion and LGBTQ rights, supporting affordable housing and increasing mass transit funding. The state minimum wage remains $7.25 an hour, the federal floor, where it has stood since 2009.
“The first bill that will reach my desk with a trifecta will be to raise our minimum wage to $15 an hour,” Shapiro said at a Philadelphia campaign event last month.
Senate Democrats’ campaign chair, Vince Hughes of Philadelphia, said Democrats are competing across their target districts but declined to predict the outcome. He said a majority would allow the party to address needs across the state, including through the Senate Appropriations Committee, which reviews legislation and state spending.
Republican leaders counter that their majority protects taxpayers and public safety. Senate Republican campaign communications director Michael Straw said Democrats’ proposals would bring tax increases and “soft-on-crime policies.” Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman has argued that lawmakers could negotiate on transit funding and a wage increase, accusing Democrats of prioritizing political messaging. Shapiro has blamed Senate Republicans for blocking a higher minimum wage.
The contest is attracting substantial spending, particularly in Philadelphia’s suburbs. Half of the 50-member Senate and all 203 state House seats are on the ballot. Democrats are targeting four Senate seats; Republicans are seeking to hold their majority and capture the Lancaster County seat Democrats won in a 2025 special election by a few hundred votes.
AdImpact data cited by campaigns showed Republican Senate efforts had spent $15.4 million on television and streaming ads across five competitive districts, compared with $12.3 million by Democratic candidates in those same races. The contests include districts in Bucks, Montgomery, Lancaster, Monroe and Lehigh counties. In Bucks County’s 6th District, ads totaled $6.9 million so far, split between Republican Sen. Frank Farry’s campaign and Democratic challenger Eileen Hartnett Albillar. In Montgomery County’s 24th District, Republican Sen. Tracy Pennycuick’s campaign had spent or reserved nearly $4 million, while Democrat Chris Thomas had spent $3 million.
The totals do not include all campaign activity, such as direct mail, and final spending figures were expected in later campaign-finance filings.
The state’s 2022 legislative maps helped Democrats flip the House that year, but an analysis by the Princeton Gerrymandering Project found the Senate maps favored Republicans. Democrats now see a potential opening in President Donald Trump’s low approval rating in Pennsylvania, Shapiro’s position at the top of the ticket and competitive suburban races. The Republican Senate majority remains a significant obstacle to the party’s agenda, however, and the outcome will depend on a small number of districts.