Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick of Fayetteville, a political newcomer, holds a lead of about 280 votes over incumbent Republican Scott Desjarlais, according to figures from the Tennessee Secretary of State's office. The Associated Press has not called the race because of the outstanding provisional ballots, which are cast when election officials have questions about a voter's eligibility. The commission reviewed each ballot to verify eligibility before Monday's count.

Broderick performed strongly in the Nashville portion of the district, winning about 75 percent of the votes counted so far in Davidson County. The district, redrawn ahead of this election, stretches from southern Davidson County to the Tennessee-Alabama line in Marion County.

Democrats expect Broderick to capture the vast majority of the provisional ballots. Isaac Kimes, a Nashville attorney and former Tennessee Senate adviser, pointed to the state's election integrity record in predicting the result would stand.

"The likelihood that this will overturn is very low," Kimes said Sunday on Nashville in Focus.

Broderick has already traveled to Washington for new-member orientation and is preparing to hire staff, according to Democratic strategist Jasper Hendricks, chairman of the Metro Fair Board.

"She's preparing to hire a staff," Hendricks said. "She is likely going to have a great position being able to deliver for the people of Tennessee with the new Democratic majority."

The race represents a dramatic reversal from two years ago, when Desjarlais defeated Broderick by 40 percentage points. Longtime Republican commentator Steve Gill attributed the shift largely to Republican voters staying home.

"He took it for granted. Everybody took it for granted. He did not get out and work," Gill said. "Over 300,000 identifiable, solid Republicans did not vote in this election. And when they stay home and the Democrats turn out, that shifts these elections pretty dramatically."

Even so, Desjarlais trailed by only a few hundred votes, a margin that underscored for activists in both parties the importance of turnout. "There were so many races that were so close," said Nashville Republican activist Victoria Pierce. "You got to get out and vote, because literally every vote does count."

While Democrats made gains nationally in the midterms, Tennessee Republicans held the governor's office, a U.S. Senate seat and several contested House races. Ward Baker, the consultant behind Governor-elect Marsha Blackburn's campaign and several winning congressional bids, has been tapped to help the National Republican Senatorial Committee recover ground ahead of 2028.

The new Democratic majority won't be sworn in until January, but the jockeying for the next election cycle is already underway.