Van Orden, a Republican and former Navy SEAL, is again facing Democrat Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District. Cooke lost to him by 2.7 percentage points in 2024, while Trump carried the district by 7.4 points. The race is among the country’s most closely watched House contests.

The campaigns and outside groups are nearing $30 million in spending, much of it on negative advertising. Van Orden’s campaign has questioned Cooke’s background and authenticity, focusing in part on her work as a waitress and her earlier employment with Democratic political organizations. Cooke and her allies have portrayed Van Orden as part of an unpopular Congress.

“The campaign has gotten intensely negative, with authenticity being a core theme,” said Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse. He expects attack ads to continue through Election Day, noting that challengers often try to link incumbents to Congress’ low public approval.

Van Orden has appeared in the district with Trump, Vice President JD Vance and a succession of administration officials, and he was the only member of Wisconsin’s congressional delegation to speak at Trump’s September midterm convention in Texas. At a June rally in Chippewa Falls, Trump praised Van Orden as a fighter and predicted he would win by a wide margin.

Other vulnerable Republicans have tried to create distance from Trump. Van Orden, by contrast, has defended the administration’s policies on immigration, tariffs and the economy, and has supported the U.S. war in Iran. In a recent interview, he acknowledged that backing the conflict could be politically difficult, but argued the United States had to confront Iran’s leadership.

Chergosky said aligning closely with Trump could help Van Orden mobilize voters in a district that has backed Trump three times. The risk for Republicans, he said, is that some pro-Trump voters who turn out in presidential elections may stay home in a midterm.

The district also has a history of electing moderate Democrat Ron Kind, and Van Orden’s confrontational style and ties to administration figures could create challenges with voters, the political scientist said. At recent events, some residents raised concerns about anti-vaccine claims associated with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the treatment of immigrant workers on local farms and at manufacturing plants.

Cooke has criticized Van Orden’s record on agriculture, saying he has not delivered a farm bill or done enough to support family farms. Van Orden has proposed expanding the H-2A visa program to address farm labor needs, though the program covers seasonal agricultural workers rather than the year-round employees many dairy farms require. He has also proposed a process requiring undocumented workers to return to their home countries and pay $2,500 to enter a queue for a new visa.

Health care is another point of dispute. Van Orden voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reduced federal health care funding. He has since promoted federal support for rural hospitals, but a KFF analysis cited in the race found that Wisconsin’s $200 million share of a hospital support fund would be far smaller than the $7 billion in federal health care funding cuts attributed to the law.

Van Orden has described himself as an effective legislator and pointed to his committee assignments. His office did not respond to a request for comment. The campaign’s final weeks are likely to test whether his close alignment with Trump can energize the district’s Republican base—or alienate voters concerned about the administration’s policies and Congress’ record.