The Department of Housing and Urban Development announced the results, though the agency had not yet published a detailed report. HUD Secretary Scott Turner credited the administration's immigration enforcement and public safety policies, saying in a statement that securing the border and "restoring safety to our communities drove a historic decrease in homelessness."

A second independent analysis of the same count, commissioned by the National Alliance to End Homelessness, found a similar decline but attributed it to different causes. "It's good news that more people are getting housed, and that the programs that are funded by Congress are working," said Ann Oliva, the group's CEO.

Both analyses estimate that nearly 700,000 people in the U.S. remain homeless, a figure significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline was broad but uneven. Homelessness among veterans fell more than 7% last year and has dropped nearly 60% since 2010, a trend Oliva linked to federal programs that house people without preconditions. By contrast, the number of chronically homeless people, who are more likely to struggle with mental health issues and addiction, rose slightly.

The administration has pointed to a surge of asylum seekers in New York, Chicago, Boston and Denver during the previous administration as a key driver of earlier increases, and said those same cities accounted for half of the recent drop. Devon Kurtz, public safety policy director at the Cicero Institute, an ally of the administration on homelessness policy, also cited cities like San Francisco that are moving toward sober-living requirements in supportive housing. Critics warn such rules can push people back onto the streets if they relapse.

The administration is seeking to overhaul several billion dollars in homelessness spending, shifting it toward short-term housing with mandated addiction and mental health treatment. That effort has so far been blocked by federal courts. Administration officials argue that the longstanding policy of placing people in permanent housing first and offering voluntary treatment afterward has failed.

Oliva disputed that characterization, saying the latest declines show that programs without preconditions are effective, particularly for veterans. She also noted that cities with encampment bans, which the Supreme Court permitted in 2024, "actually did worse than the national average" in the alliance's analysis.

Other factors likely contributed to the decline, including softening rental markets in some regions. Although rents remain high, they have fallen from pandemic-era peaks, which may have slowed the flow of newly homeless people. Communities hit by major weather disasters, such as western North Carolina and Hawaii, also saw declines as federal and nonprofit assistance reached displaced residents, including those who were already unhoused.