The report estimates the wait at 21 years for a median-income Black renter household. Among middle-income households earning about $50,000 to $120,000, the estimated savings period has doubled to 12 years. For workers including nurses, teachers, firefighters, police officers and emergency medical technicians, the estimate ranges from 10 to 13 years.

The calculations assume buyers put down 3.5%, the minimum required for many first-time buyers using Federal Housing Administration loans. They also assume households are able to save consistently. The report’s authors say the figures may understate the challenge: many renters cannot save, have to draw down existing savings or take on debt. The median first-time buyer puts down about 10%, according to data cited in the analysis.

The report attributes the longer timeline to rising home prices, higher closing costs and inflation in essentials such as food, fuel and health care. Homeowners insurance has also pushed up closing costs. Renters’ incomes have not kept pace with expenses, leaving less money available to set aside.

“Over the last seven years, the time to save up that down payment and closing costs has doubled,” said Mike Calhoun, president of the Center for Responsible Lending. The analysis puts the cost of a starter home at $335,574, or 80% of the median sale price for existing homes.

The burden varies by location. The estimated time to save ranges from 11 years in Houston to 24 years in Los Angeles, according to the report. A recent analysis from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies found that from 2001 to 2024, renter incomes rose 9% after inflation while rents rose 30%. A quarter of renters now spend more than half their income on rent and utilities, that analysis found.

The widening gap between renters and homeowners reflects how rising property values have built wealth for many people who already own homes, while making it harder for others to enter the market. Some longtime homeowners have held on to mortgages secured at much lower interest rates rather than move and take on larger payments. That has also contributed to fewer homes being listed for sale, the report says.

For younger buyers, help from family and friends is an increasingly important source of down payment money, Calhoun said. Assistance programs exist, but many are small or run out of funds, he said, leaving buyers without family wealth at a disadvantage.

The report calls for zoning and other changes to encourage construction of smaller, less expensive homes, including duplexes, townhomes and manufactured housing. More housing supply could improve affordability, though building takes time. A federal housing law passed this year aims to encourage construction, but states and local governments will need to act on it.

Despite the barriers, a related survey by the institute found that millennials and Gen Zers aspire to homeownership at rates similar to previous generations. Report co-author David Silberman said homeownership remains an important way for families to build and pass on wealth, even as the path to buying grows longer.