According to projections from the Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research, the county stands to lose $68.3 million in fiscal year 2028, $136.1 million in fiscal year 2029 and $191.6 million by fiscal year 2032.

County Commission Chair Clay Murphy said the county has been preparing for the possibility since spring, but the scale of the shortfall remains daunting.

“It’s just something that we’re going to have to deal with,” Murphy said. “But losing 15% of your ad valorem tax revenue year one, 30% year two, and then at year five, we’re going to be at about 45% of our ad valorem tax revenue, but just gone.”

Under County Administrator Joy Andrews, staff began a countywide review of services, staffing, contracts and capital projects in May, months before the election. The county has set aside $31.2 million in emergency response reserves and another $30 million in General Fund reserves designated for financial resiliency.

A hiring freeze imposed immediately after the vote will remain in place indefinitely.

“We had a hiring freeze that we started implementing immediately. No more hiring,” Murphy said. “And that’s now permanent because we can’t afford to hire anybody new right now until we get a handle on what it’s going to look like.”

About $100 million in capital improvement projects have been placed on hold, and roughly $8.6 million tied to filled and vacant positions has been flagged for reassessment. Among the paused projects is a planned new fire station in the Beachwalk area.

Murphy said the county must also reconsider a $120 million bond the previous board approved for parks, fire stations and libraries, noting that building new facilities only makes sense if the county can afford to operate and maintain them.

Non-mandated services — including parks and recreation, libraries and Health and Human Services — are under review. Murphy offered a hypothetical to illustrate the magnitude of the cuts ahead.

“So to give you an idea of what $65 million would look like to our budget, if we eliminated parks and recs and libraries and HHS, that would be about $50 million,” he said. “Hypothetically.”

No formal decisions have been made. Murphy said a public discussion is scheduled for a commission meeting in December, and that the county intends to make genuine budget reductions rather than offset losses with new fees.

“The people have spoken, and I certainly respect that because people are concerned about their taxes,” Murphy said. “But now comes the job of implementing the cuts that they’ve mandated for us, and it’s going to be painful.”

Residents seeking more information can visit sjcfl.us/amendment-3.