The Free Press Indiana Poll, conducted by Bellwether Research, found that 54% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s performance and 44% approve. Strong disapproval stood at 48%, compared with 28% who said they strongly approve. The results mark a shift in a state Trump carried by nearly 20 percentage points in 2024.

Ball State University political scientist Chad Kinsella pointed to inflation and rising gas prices amid the war in Iran as sources of frustration for Hoosiers who expected Trump to reduce costs. “His whole thing was bringing down costs,” Kinsella said. “Trump’s numbers are underwater, and people are not happy.”

Disapproval varied sharply by party: 15% of Republican respondents disapproved of Trump, compared with 96% of Democrats and 69% of independents. The survey also found 58% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the 2026 midterms, versus 34% of Republicans. Kinsella said Democratic energy could affect the election, though the poll measures stated attitudes and enthusiasm, not eventual turnout or results.

The survey found similar headwinds for Braun, a Republican whose administration has closely aligned itself with Trump’s agenda. Forty-eight percent of likely voters disapproved of the governor, 38% approved and 13% were unsure. Approval was 67% among Republicans, 9% among Democrats and 20% among independents.

Meanwhile, 47% of respondents said Indiana was headed in the wrong direction, while 35% said it was on the right track. Cost of living ranked among the state’s two most pressing issues, just behind government corruption, according to the poll.

Braun has made affordability a priority. He renewed a suspension of the state gas tax and has urged the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission to seek ways to lower electricity bills. Kinsella said those efforts may be overshadowed by the governor’s political connection to Trump. “The president is the brand, and if the president’s brand is not doing well, then the whole thing goes down with him,” he said.

Nationally, Trump’s approval rating was about 32% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted earlier in October, according to the report. It also noted declining approval in other traditionally Republican states.

The Indiana poll was commissioned by Free Press Indiana and surveyed 896 registered voters by phone and text-linked online questionnaires from Oct. 8 to 11. Its findings are based on 839 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Bellwether Research has worked for clients including former Gov. Mitch Daniels, Eli Lilly and the Nature Conservancy in Indiana.