As of 6 p.m. Friday, Laubacher led Boebert by 3,172 votes—a margin of 0.83 percentage points—as county clerks continued to update their tallies. The Associated Press estimated that more than 97% of the vote had been counted but had not called the race.

Scott Gessler, a former Republican Colorado secretary of state who is representing the Boebert campaign, said in a statement late Thursday that he expects the contest to end in a recount "one way or another," even though the current margin is well outside the threshold that would require one under Colorado law.

"Since election night, ballot returns have been trending in Congresswoman Boebert's direction, consistently lowering the margin under one percentage point," Gessler said. "We are investigating some very unusual voting patterns and expect this election to head to a recount."

Gessler did not respond to an inquiry asking what specific voting patterns he was referencing, nor did he elaborate on what evidence, if any, the campaign has gathered.

Colorado law requires an automatic recount only when the margin between the top two candidates is 0.5% or less of the leading candidate's vote total. As of Friday morning, the difference would have to be 923 votes or fewer to trigger a mandatory recount—less than one-third of the current gap. Candidates may pay for a recount if the margin exceeds that threshold.

The Boebert campaign also sent a fundraising email Thursday signed by the candidate that mischaracterized the state's recount law. "The race goes into an automatic recount if the margin is 0.5% or lower," Boebert wrote in the appeal, which described the race as "closer than anyone expected." That is not what the statute says: the 0.5% is calculated based on the leading candidate's total, not the overall vote count, and the current margin remains above it. Neither Gessler nor a campaign spokesman responded to requests for comment about the misstatement.

Laubacher, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral and former National Security Council official, led Boebert by more than 7,000 votes on election night, but her advantage has shrunk as later-arriving ballots have been counted. That pattern is typical in Colorado, where Republican voters tend to return ballots later and a small number prefer to vote in person on Election Day.

Boebert, who is serving her third term and is the state's senior elected Republican, moved to the 4th District two years ago after narrowly winning reelection by fewer than 600 votes on the other side of the state. The 4th District is Colorado's most reliably Republican congressional seat, making the current tally a striking reversal for a incumbent who has built a national profile as a member of the House Freedom Caucus.

The contest is one of several still being tallied across Colorado, where Democrats have already celebrated victories in the governor's race and state legislative contests. Election officials in the sprawling 4th District, which stretches from the Denver suburbs across the Eastern Plains, are continuing to process ballots. County clerks have not reported any irregularities, and state election officials have repeatedly affirmed the integrity of Colorado's mail-voting system.

Gessler, in his statement, insisted the campaign is "fighting for every vote" and would "continue to ensure every legal vote is counted." He added: "Every legal vote must be counted accurately, fully, and transparently. We will continue to investigate throughout the process to protect the integrity of this election and ensure Coloradans can have complete confidence in the results."

Laubacher's campaign has not responded publicly to the allegations. The race remains uncalled, and further vote updates are expected in the coming days.