Politics
Texas Senate contest hinges on turnout as Talarico and Paxton make closing appeals
A poll puts Democrat James Talarico two points ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, but analysts say the tight race may turn on who votes, how independents and Latino voters break, and whether Republicans rally behind their nominee. More than $200 million in Republican spending on Paxton’s behalf has also intensified the final stretch.
With Texas early voting halfway complete, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are making final appeals to voters in a U.S. Senate race analysts say remains too close to call.
A recent CBS News poll found Talarico ahead 51% to 49%, within the margin of error. The RealClearPolitics polling average cited in the campaign discussion put Talarico’s lead at 1.8 percentage points. The candidates made multiple stops in North Texas last week as they sought to turn support into votes before Election Day.
Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’ executive director of elections and surveys, said the poll showed Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they would definitely vote. That could help Talarico if Democrats follow through, he said, while Paxton’s prospects depend in part on whether Texas Republicans turn out for their party’s nominee.
Republicans outnumber Democrats in Texas, but the poll suggested some potential weaknesses for both campaigns. Only 5% of Republicans surveyed said they planned to vote for Talarico, according to CBS senior political correspondent Ed O’Keefe. Talarico also had somewhat less support among Black voters than Vice President Kamala Harris received in the state in 2024, O’Keefe said, while support among Latino voters appeared to be shifting toward Talarico compared with that year.
Salvanto said many Paxton supporters told pollsters they backed him because he was the Republican nominee, a finding that leaves open whether voters with less enthusiasm for the candidate will still cast ballots for him. For Talarico, the challenge is assembling a coalition of Democrats, independents and voters in places such as the Rio Grande Valley, while also making gains among Republicans or benefiting from voters skipping the Senate race.
The contest is also being shaped by the economy and a costly advertising battle. Salvanto said voters who reported that high prices had created hardship were leaning toward Talarico, reflecting a broader pattern in which economic concerns have benefited Democrats. At the same time, voters who view Talarico as very liberal were strongly inclined to support Paxton, giving Republican groups an opening for negative ads focused on Talarico’s positions on social and cultural issues.
More than $200 million had been spent by Republicans on Paxton’s behalf, according to figures cited during the discussion. O’Keefe said the late push comes after Paxton’s difficult primary contest against U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and noted that ad time in major Texas markets can be expensive or unavailable late in the campaign. He said the spending may be helping activate Republicans, but it remains uncertain whether the advertising will change enough votes to decide the race.
In a state as large as Texas, even a small shift in the polls can represent tens of thousands of voters. Salvanto and O’Keefe said the outcome may depend on whether each campaign can mobilize supporters, and whether Talarico can make up ground among independents and Latino voters as Paxton seeks to consolidate Republican support.