Politics
Acton and Brown hold leads in Ohio midterm poll, but voters see governor race differently
A Marist University survey puts Democrats Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown ahead of their Republican opponents in Ohio’s governor and Senate races. Yet more respondents expect Republican Vivek Ramaswamy to win the governor’s race, underscoring the uncertainty strategists say turnout could decide.
COLUMBUS, Ohio — With about two weeks until Election Day, Democratic candidates Amy Acton and Sherrod Brown lead their Republican opponents in Ohio’s governor and U.S. Senate races, according to a Marist University poll released Tuesday.
The survey of 1,176 registered Ohio voters, conducted Oct. 15-18, found Brown leading Republican incumbent Jon Husted, 51% to 42%. Among independent voters, Brown had a 51%-36% advantage. Independents accounted for nearly one-third of respondents.
In the governor’s race, 51% said they would vote for Acton, compared with 43% for Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Acton led among independents, 54% to 36%.
The poll’s measure of expectations told a different story in the governor’s contest: 51% of respondents thought Ramaswamy would win, while 45% expected Acton to prevail. In the Senate race, 51% thought Brown would win and 44% picked Husted.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The results are a snapshot of registered voters’ views, not a prediction of who will cast ballots.
Democratic strategist Morgan Harper said independent voters’ support for Brown may reflect frustration with the current administration and Congress, as well as a desire for change. Republican strategist Terry Casey said turnout could determine the outcomes, including whether Republicans rally behind their nominees and where independents land.
Casey described the governor’s race as unsettled, saying voters are still weighing whether to participate and which candidate and priorities they prefer. Harper said Acton could maintain or expand her lead, while questioning whether negative campaign messaging from Ramaswamy would help him.
The competing measures in the poll—candidate preference and expectations about who will win—show why the closing stretch and voter turnout remain consequential in both statewide contests.