GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan, the company’s head of petroleum analysis, linked the increase to a minor problem at an oil refinery in Illinois. With some refinery operations returning, De Haan said he expected Ohio prices to likely fall below $4 a gallon by the weekend or early the following week.

The state’s tax pause removes nearly 40 cents from the cost of a regular gallon, De Haan said. He added that Ohio drivers were still paying less than motorists in neighboring states where the gas tax remained in place.

For some Central Ohio residents, however, day-to-day swings remain difficult to manage. Columbus driver Stephanie Phillips said fluctuating prices complicate budgeting for her household, which relies on a fixed income. She said setting aside a consistent $200 a month for gas can be hard when costs repeatedly rise and fall.

Frank Flemister, who drives for work delivering medical supplies, said fuel costs have added about $300 a month to his expenses. He said he has adjusted routes and carries more cargo per trip to manage the increase.

The tax pause offers a reduction at the pump, but the refinery disruption illustrates how factors beyond state taxes can quickly affect what drivers pay. De Haan’s forecast suggested the latest spike could ease as refinery operations recover.